Political and Ethno-Demographic Calculations in NASA’s Endorsement of Governor Mandago

All politics is local. It is kitchen sink time ahead of the anticipated general elections in Kenya on 8 August. The two leading political outfits Jubilee and NASA are crisscrossing the country in attempt to win the hearts of people. Incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta snubbed the president’s debate citing it as a “waste of time” much to the chagrin of the Kenyan people. His die-hard supporters have however, defended his decision. His close competitor Raila Odinga chose to attend the debate and with the latest Infotrak showing he has a one-point lead to President Kenyatta, he will definitely be buoyed and confident going into the elections. A corresponding Ipsos poll however, shows Uhuru in the lead. Much of the campaign message after the debate has been about the decision of Uhuru to skip the debate.

Despite this spin, one interesting thing happened during NASA’s campaign in Uasin Gishu county. In an area known to be the bedrock of Jubilee support, it is largely expected that NASA will get very few votes. However, with the local ethno-demographic and political play, NASA has seen an opportunity to eat-into the Jubilee votes.

Ethno-demography in Uasin Gishu County

Incumbent governor Jackson Mandago who won the Jubilee nominations in April, 2017 is facing a tough reelection. His closest and fiercest opponent is Zedekiah Kiprop Bundotich alias Buzeki who is an independent candidate. These two had actually squared off in the Jubilee nominations with Mandago defeating Buzeki – who felt aggrieved and decamped and is now running as an independent. Buzeki is known to be wealthy and as the story goes, enjoys the support of the Deputy President William Ruto – the Rift Valley kingpin. A recent poll by Infotrak indicates that Buzeki (54%) is ahead of Mandago (42.1%) in the governor’s race. Buzeki has been gaining momentum since his decision to run as an independent.

In June, the Star Newspaper wrote an analysis of the battle-royal between the two – saying that Buzeki was no storm in a teacup. The analysis indicated that Mandago, who is an ethnic Nandi – the majority in the Kalenjin tribe is a poor orator and lacks charisma to pull crowds. The ethno-demography is further evidenced in Buzeki who is a Keiyo – another subtribe of the Kalenjin and married to a Kikuyu. The historicities of the ethnic politics in Rift Valley and Kenya are known to play a key factor in elections. Kenya’s political culture is read through ethnic mobilization and balkanization. That notwithstanding, the interplay between the Nandi-Keiyo/Kikuyu in Uasin Gishu is threatening the reelection of Mandago. Deputy President William Ruto has pleaded with Buzeki to drop his bid but Buzeki remains adamant that he wants the governorship position. Mandago has “accused” the Kikuyus in Uasin Gishu of supporting his opponent – something he says is not good for Jubilee unity. Reports indicate that a Kikuyu interest group in the county would prefer Buzeki, their in-law to safeguard their interests.

NASA Prey in Uasin Gishu

The continuing ethno-demographic mobilization in the county has enticed the opposition NASA – who like the proverbial grasshopper fight that benefits the crow. Earlier, there was talk that a Buzeki withdrawal from the rest would have forced his supporters to vote for NASA. However, with Buzeki still in the race, NASA has decided to wade in. Speaking in Eldoret, NASA leaders pledged support for Mandago. “If I was voting here in Eldoret, I would have voted for Mandago,” said NASA running mate Kalonzo Musyoka. On his part, Moses Wetangula said that he stood with Mandago because he was “oppressed”. Bomet governor Isaac Rutto also weighed in sending greetings to Mandago much to the jubilation of the crowd. The thinking of NASA is that a section of Jubilee leaders is backing Buzeki and not Mandago.

NASA game plan

NASA’s endorsement of Mandago can be analyzed in three ways. Firstly, NASA and indeed Mandago, believe that William Ruto is supporting Buzeki. They say the enemy of your enemy is your friend. Through this endorsement, NASA sees an opportunity of receiving presidential votes in Uasin Gishu from Mandagao supporters. What will it take to have Mandago supporters, who are also Jubilee supporters to vote for Raila Odinga of NASA? This remains highly unlikely. Jubilee has found it hard to sell its six-piece voting pattern especially in areas that it enjoys massive following such as in Central Kenya and in Rift Valley. However, on the ethno-demographic balance, NASA could receive rebel votes from Mandago Jubilee supporters as well as from other NASA allied tribes living in the county. The script here is again focused on 2022 succession politics of DP William Ruto – who wants to have his “men” ahead of his anticipated 2022 presidential bid.

Secondly, with the tightness of the elections as predicted by two polls Infrotrak and Ipsos, the game plan for NASA seems to also focus on a potential runoff. If Buzeki wins the race, Mandago livid and disfranchised supporters will be inclined to vote for Raila Odinga in the runoff -  thus tipping the scales in favor of NASA. This is a futurist calculation which NASA hopes to cash on in the event there is a runoff.

Governor Mandago and William Ruto 

Thirdly, NASA’s endorsement of Mandago’s is a crafty attempt to eat into Rift Valley votes having already done so with the inclusion of renegade Bomet governor Isaac Rutto. With the ethno-demographic interplay, it is expected that NASA will eat into the Jubilee stronghold of Rift Valley. Aware that the electoral dynamics change every day, it remains to be seen if the new-found NASA love for Jubilee’s Mandago will yield any success.    

Campaign Songs and the 2017 Elections in Kenya

With the Kenyan elections at fever pitch you must have heard NASA’s campaign song “Tibim” and Jubilee’s “Tano Tena”. I look at how the campaigns have been shaped by the songs adopted as campaign songs by the two-leading political entities in Kenya.

Since the wave in the reintroduction of multiparty electoral politics in Africa in the 1990s, the world has been treated to the ups and downs that have come with multiparty elections in Africa. Africa has come a long way in electoral politics. Nic Cheeseman in his book Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures and the Struggle for Political Reform brings out the challenges to democratic consolidation in Africa citing the examples of numerous states. I have taken much interest in elections and election studies in Africa, reading numerous works by both Western and African scholars who analyze the road to democracy in Africa. Particularly, I have been a keen follower of the Kenyan electoral process since 1997 when I was still in Primary School in Lukenya Academy. Having spent my entire formative years in Kenya, I have observed the electoral process since 1997 when President Daniel Moi was reelected. The 1997 elections were interesting, and as a young man, I recall the party symbols that were used. Moi and his party KANU had the ‘jogoo’ as the party symbols while Charity Ngilu’s SDP had the clock. She was a phenomenon then, people referred her “Masaa ya Ngilu”. Raila Odinga who ran on the National Development Party (NDP) had the symbol of a tractor – and people called him “Tinga”.

The elections of 2002 were historic in Kenya. With the merger of the opposition under the NARC umbrella, they were able to oust Moi’s project Uhuru Kenyatta. Mwai Kibaki was sworn in as president on a wheelchair at a memorable occasion in Uhuru Park. It was my final year in Primary School and the mood around the country was electric. The election in 2007 was followed by the unfortunate descent into election violence. ODM Party candidate Raila Odinga contested the election outcomes leading to reprisal communal attacks in many parts of the country. The 2013 elections ended up at the Supreme Court, where Raila Odinga’s coalition CORD unsuccessfully contested the outcome.

Siasa Kenya

Despite the ethnized nature of Kenyan politics, one interesting thing is the fanfare that characterizes the electioneering process. I have not known a day in Kenya where politics is not discussed. The end of an election in Kenya is the start of politicking and planning for the next election. There is never a dull moment in Kenyan politics. As part of my literature review for my PhD thesis, I have gathered a lot of material on elections and electoral politics in Africa. One text that has drawn me to the Kenyan elections in Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns written by Leonardo Arriola. The book looks at patronage politics, ethnic cleavages and democratization in Africa. Its analysis touches on the asymmetry between post-colonial Africa and the ethnic mobilization in countries in Africa. Kenya falls under this analysis of ethnic balkanization and ethnic mobilization in the form of coalitions. The rise of ethnic coalitions in Kenya is a testament of the deep lying ethnic issues in the country. Party populism in Kenya is based on how much an ethnic leader can marshall his tribesmen and those of other tribes’ people to outdo the others.

Creativity in Campaign Songs

Despite the doom and gloom, Kenyan politics remains interesting especially on the creativity in the campaigns. The 2017 elections have been made more interesting by the campaign songs. Campaign songs add to the glitz and glamor of elections. The two major coalitions Jubilee and the National Super Alliance (NASA) have incorporated campaign songs that mobilize the electorate. Whereas campaign slogans are aimed at capturing the attention of people during campaign rallies, campaign songs generally radiate the mojo of the electorates. Jubilee’s campaign slogan is “Tuko Pamoja” which translates to we are together while that of NASA is “Mambo Yabadilika” meaning Change.

The two parties don’t have official campaign songs but some local artists have crafted campaign songs that have been adopted by NASA and Jubilee in their campaign trail. Tanzania’s ruling party CCM is known to have good campaign songs which were composed by the Tanzania One Theatre (TOT) Band. In the 2015 elections for instance, CCM outdid its closest rival Chadema with the hit song “CCM Mbele kwa Mbele”. By all means, the song must have been the song of the year in 2015. It spoke to the CCM supporters and also lambasted the opposition in very crafty manner. “CCM ni ile ile, oh ni ile ile… mwaka huu watatukoma,” these were some of the lyrics that galvanized the CCM base.

Nasa Tibim, Raila Tibim!

NASA has several songs that it has adopted for its campaign. Going by their coalition slogan “Mambo Yabadilika” the NASA coalition has adopted Hellena Ken’s gospel song with the same title to signify their change message. The song by Hellen Ken has been popularized by the NASA coalition and it is now synonymous with them. Going by the change theme, a Luhyia artist Amos Barasa has released the song “Bindu Bichenjanga” singing about change. The glitzy Luo song “Tibim” by Onyi Jalamo has so far been the most reverberant NASA campaign song. “Tibim” song recognizes all the NASA leaders led by its presidential candidate Raila Odinga, running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetangula among others such as the Nairobi governor Evans Kidero. These songs add to the glitz and fanfare at rallies before the leaders make their speeches. Artist Lawi has also added to the list of the NASA songs as well as Sweet Star, the Kalenjin artist who has a Kalenjin remix Tibim song. The NASA team has also used Tanzania’s hit song “Muziki” by Darassa featuring Ben Pol to respond to Jubilee’s attacks with Raila telling off President Kenyatta “Blah Blah sitaki kusikia” then he dances as the song rolls on. Raila, popularly known as “Baba”, “Tinga”, “Agwambo” or “Jakom” or “Joshua” has had many songs by his tribesmen which idolize and praise him. One example is that by lady Maureem titles “Raila Jakom”. Kamba artist Ken Wa Maria has also sung a song praising Kalonzo Musyoka titled “Kalonzo ika nesa” which is sang in campaign rallies before Kalonzo speaks.  

Kenyan top leaders share a joke 

Jubilee, Tano Tena!

Kikuyu Gospel artist Ben Githae has released a campaign song in praise of Jubilee and its leaders incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. The song “Uhuru na Ruto Tano Tena” is a reminder of the much Jubilee has achieved in their first term in office and urges people to reelect them. The song in Swahili highlights the successes in the Jubilee administration. I have also come across a song by Kamande wa Kioi, a popular Kikuyu artist who sings praises to Uhuru Kenyatta. The song “Uhuru ni witu” sang in Kikuyu was a prayer request to have Uhuru freed from the ICC yoke before his election in 2013.

Onyi Papa Jay 2007 Song

However, the best campaign song has to be Onyi Papa Jay’s ODM song of 2007. The song combined Swahili and Luo lyrics to capture the process leading to the 2007 elections. The song gives a historical analysis of the formation of the ODM party. Combining Swahili and Luo narratives, the song gives details of the 2005 referendum that was won by the Orange team. The ODM team was led by the then Pentagon of Raila, Ruto, Mudavadi, Nyaga, Balala and Ngilu. Using Raila’s football commentary analogy, Onyi Papa Jay passionately narrates how ODM was going to beat PNU in the elections.

Campaign songs are important in mobilizing electorate around an agenda ahead of an election. Songs generally are an important medium of cultural expression in all societies. The campaign songs in Kenya explain the nature of Kenyan political landscape which is largely ethnic. However, the songs have also been embraced by the ethnic communities that make up the specific coalitions.   

Nicodemus Minde

Nairobi, Kenya

10 July 2017

Uhuru Kenyatta and African Diplomacy

Nicodemus Minde-@decolanga

Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta seems to be a man on a mission to open up Kenya in the diplomatic circles. When he took oath of office in April 9, 2013, Mr. Kenyatta has conducted his diplomatic business very well (Read my analysis on Uhuru's FP). Unlike the prevision administrations, Uhuru Kenyatta is asserting Kenya's foreign policy and opening up the country to the world especially to Africa. During his inauguration, he stressed the need for fostering the East African Community ties. The East African national anthem was even played during the swearing in ceremony despite many of the Kenyan people not knowing it. He quickly forged close ties with Jakaya Kikwete, Tanzania's president and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda who spoke on behalf of the invited Heads of State and Government during the swearing in ceremony. Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi soon after paid President Kenyatta a courtesy visit at State House. Early this month, he also met with Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. 

When then went on and nominated Amina Abdi as the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs. Ms Abdi has vast international experience and the UN system in general. This tells you how much importance the president has placed on the foreign relations docket and the image of the country internationally. Despite the fact that he faces "a personal challenge" of the ICC as he put it during the second presidential elections, Mr. Kenyatta has really worked hard to reface the country's foreign relations image. During the African Union's Heads of States and Government in Addis in May, 2013, the President through a combination of proxy factors and government tactic, he persuaded the AU to ask for the deferral of the ICC cases back to Africa. It was deemed a success. His Deputy, William Ruto has also visited a number of African countries in what is he terms as missions to woo international investments.

This week President Kenyatta has visited Nigeria for the African Heads of State and Government two day special AU Summit on HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (A.T.M.) at Abuja International Conference Centre. The two nations signed three bilateral agreements to help boost ties. The agreements were signed by Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretaries Amb. Amina Mohamed and her Nigerian counterpart Mr.Olugbenga Ashiru. The three agreements signed are on the establishment of a Joint Commission for Cooperation, a Protocol on consultations between Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Kenya and Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and an MOU on mutual cooperation between the Foreign Service Institute of Kenya and the Foreign Service Academy of Nigeria.

He met Kenyans living there and also met Rwanda's Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo, where they spoke at length. President Kenyatta also separately met and held talks with Ethiopian Premier Hailemariam Desalegn and Vice President of Ghana Kwesi Amissah-Arthur on the sidelines of the Abuja +12 Summit at Abuja International Conference Center. The talks focused on matters of mutual interest both at the bilateral and regional levels. The President also flew to Democratic Republic of Congo where he met and held talks with his DRC counterpart President Joseph Kabila. The talks between the two leaders focused on matters of mutual interest both at the bilateral and regional level. 

The African diplomacy by President Kenyatta may be interpreted as a shift from the tradition of relations with only Western countries due to the charges he faces at the ICC. But it is quite interesting that he wants Kenya to be pursue an African based diplomacy which I think is the future for Africa. The efforts made by Kenyatta to align Kenya more with Africa is quite impressive and futuristic. The president also travels with a contingency of professionals of whom advise him and make concrete observations. This is what Kenya needs diplomatically. 

Uhuru's new Foreign Policy Approach: Pragmatic or Precarious?

Nicodemus Minde

In one of his analysis of Kenya's new foreign policy approach under President Uhuru Kenyatta, Peter Kagwanja remarked that Kenya’s foreign policy is emerging and is reflecting an assertive new Africa-centred approach as the central plank of Nairobi’s regional and global policy. He was writing this in the regional paper, the East Africa soon after President Kenyatta took oath of office on April 9, 2013. Kenya has historically been the 'hub' of the region, as evidenced by the international presence such as the UN offices in Nairobi. 

When Kenya gained political independence in 1963, it took a pure capitalist approach based on the Western model. Her relations with the West were thus strengthened by this. Kenya became the darling of the West and a close ally unlike her East African neighbors, Tanzania and Uganda. Tanzania had taken up the socialist model, Ujamaa, which President Nyerere described as 'Tanzania's unique model of socialism.' Uganda under Milton Obote also pursed a similar path. It was no wonder that Tanzania strengthened her relations with the likes of China, USSR, and Cuba, who were all communist states. Under President Daniel Moi, Kenya's foreign policy was quite pragmatic due to the Cold War at the time. However, Kenya maintained close relations with the West particularly US and Britain. However, since 2002 as my colleague puts it "the Kibaki administration had been keen on expand the pool of international partners. China was one such available partner". This has seen Kenya adapt an Economic Diplomacy Foreign Policy Agenda which focuses largely on trade, bilateral and multilateral business partnerships. 

Uhuru Kenyatta, during his campaigns said he would "look East" upon his ascension to president. Foreign policy commentators and media saw his move was instigated by his indictment at the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes committed during Kenya's Post-poll Violence of 2007/2008. Coupled with the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson remark that 'choices have consequences' warning Kenyans against electing an indictee president, Kenyatta administration was without doubt going to pursue a "look East" approach. 

US President Barack Obama, whose father was Kenyan, has skipped Kenya from his latest African tour. He visits Tanzania instead, to the dismay of many Kenyans, who view it as a snob. Obama through the foreign department has explained that he visits Tanzania for economic reasons and most recently the White House explained that the ICC cases facing Kenya’s top leaders are the reason why US President Barrack Obama is skipping Kenya during his Africa tour which kicks off Wednesday next week. Outspoken critic of Uhuru Kenyatta, Makau Mutua reiterated this in his column on Sunday Nation stating that Mr Obama is simply giving Mr Carson’s truism a nod.

President Kenyatta will embark on a tour to Japan, Russia and China in a move seen by many as a counter-check to the Obama snob and reiterating his "look East" approach. Kenyatta has proven to be quite an astute politician who tries to balance Kenya's relations without necessarily being seen as an 'anti-West' leader. He has to trade like this since he still has a pending a case at the ICC.    

The communication angle during Cabinet Unveiling: Why UhuruRuto were in matching outfits and more!

Nicodemus Minde, Nairobi

Tuesday 23, April, 2013. Late Tuesday, Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta named four out of the 18 members of his Cabinet. Flanked by his Deputy, William Ruto, the President read out the profiles of the four nominees to his cabinet. Going against primordial tendencies which characterized former administrations, President Kenyatta in a calculative manner set out the unveiling of the cabinet at the entrance of State House, a more media friendly area. The occasion and setting was reminiscent of that of White House in United States. Further, the President read out the list of the nominees with their profiles coming at the interlude of each proposed name. This is indeed a modern culture which, pursuant to their election manifesto,echoes the spirit of a digital revolution in Kenya. With State House Kenya having its on twitter handle (@StateHouseKenya) and Facebook link which keeps the people abreast with matters of the State, the Curriculum Vitae of the nominees were also quickly uploaded in the document sharing website Scribd. This is indeed a digital revolution on the part of the Jubilee team. 

Picture courtesy of Daily Nation

The President and his Deputy were also in matching white shirts and red ties. By them wearing shirts without the coats/jackets, it signifies their readiness and commitment to the arduous work ahead. Similar to President Obama's roll-up of his shirt's sleeves, the two decided to abandon their coats and show they are prepared for the task at hand. It is also noteworthy that the two matching in their dressing. This again shows their commitment to working together despite the incessant giggles and parleys of them not agreeing on the cabinet list. 

The President also took questions from the media, a practice not so common with previous administrations. To show unity again, Uhuru Kenyatta asked his Deputy William Ruto to take the other questions and clarify on a number of issues. That is called working in tandem and the relationship is becoming telepathic. William Ruto backed his boss when responding to the questions and further clarified on the East African Community docket. In another symbolic act, the President invited the journalists for a cup of tea inside State House. Though the welcome gesture was just out of courteousness, it shows the friendly side of the two. People will say the two are in the honeymoon phase of their leadership, but as the Swahili saying goes, "siku njema huonekana asubuhi."