Kenyatta-Trump Meeting: The 'Big 4'- AGOA Conundrum

By Muthuma Njenga

President Kenyatta is scheduled to meet his counterpart POTUS Donald Trump at White House, Washington on Monday 27 August. The much anticipated and hyped meeting presents a chance for the two head of States to formally engage for the first time since the election of Donald Trump, with discussions ranging from trade to security issues. The visit maintains its traditional skewed development nature: Kenya seeking to get more funding (aid) in its 'Big 4' development programmes and regional security initiatives (Somalia mission). Kenya will also be seeking to maximize on preferential trade deals and opportunities and signing new ones. This comes at a time when US and China are locked in tariffs confrontation which could lead to a trade war, in this scenario Kenya proves to be an important pawn if there were to be a trade war between the two global economic giants, owing to the fact that Kenya is the economic gateway to the eastern region of the continent.

Trade discussions are expected to stretch to Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), where the US is mulling on replacing 18-year multilateral program with preferential bilateral programs with respective African states, Kenya being fronted as one of the first States to benefit from the new program. The ministries of foreign affairs and trade and industrialization are keen to clinch the deal which has its shortcomings and poses a threat to 'Big 4'.

President Uhuru Kenyatta. Picture courtesy 

Under manufacturing pillar, Textile and leather industries are key sub-sectors which the Kenyan government want to revive. Their revival terms and solution has been easy: reduce inflow of cheap second-hand clothes into the country. Prior to the Big 4, EAC head of States had sought to revive the textile industry in the region. They directed ministers of trade to draft regulations to guard local textile and leather products back in 2015. The ministers presented a draft policy document whose main recommendation was a joint restriction on imported second hand clothes and shoes. The draft policy was adopted unanimously and was set to be implemented by 2018. However only Rwanda took the leap of faith and courage by slapping imported second hand clothes and shoes with the agreed 25% EAC joint tariff. This causing a possible trade confrontation between Rwanda and US (which benefits highly from exporting second hand clothes), where US threatened to withdraw AGOA privileges from Rwanda.

Kenya and its two counterparts Uganda and Tanzania choose to stick to a 'pragmatic' policy of wait and see, and eventually 'chickened out' of the agreed tariff proposal. Defending Kenya's move former industrialization CS Adan Mohammed cited effects of the burn to importers and entrepreneurs of mitumba, and also considering the ultimate consequence; Kenya losing the AGOA privileges where it benefits greatly by exporting textile and apparels products. which are very valid justifications, but do not offer a long-term solution to the crippled local textile and Leather industries.

The Kenyan delegation will be faced with a great task of balancing between AGOA and Big 4. On big 4, they will seek funding to revive the local textile industry, and on the other hand the Kenyan delegation will have to appease the US delegation by caving in on mitumba restrictions so as to clinch the new bilateral deal, with the latter likely to carry the day. We might gain one and loose the other but we will certainly, never gain both.

Muthuma Njenga

International Relations Student

Technical University of Kenya

Uhuru Kenyatta's Foreign Policy; More Assertive and Focused

President Uhuru Kenyatta will in the coming three weeks meet with the world’s top three nations. He will be hosted by US President Donald Trump at the White House on 27 August, before playing host to British Prime Minister Theresa May on 30 August. President Kenyatta will then be hosted by Chinese President in the first week of September. Speaking on the visits, Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Ambassador Monica Juma spoke on the importance of the three countries in relations to President Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda. “America is one of our greatest supporters in the counterterrorism effort [], the discussions are strategic and valuable,” said Amb. Juma. She also spoke on the special relationship with the UK pointing out that Kenya has favorable balance of trade between it and its former colonial master.

Since the election of President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2013, Kenya’s foreign policy has been more assertive, engaging and strategic. In his first term in office, President Kenyatta forged a more Afro-centric foreign policy. This can be attributed to the International Criminal Court (ICC) involvement in Kenya and the subsequent efforts to lobby African states to defer the Kenya cases. President Kenyatta also made African diplomacy his key foreign policy objective in his first term in office. To show Kenya’s African focus diplomacy, the country fronted its Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohammed to contest the position of the African Union Commission. Despite her losing to Moussa Faki of Chad, it showcased Kenya’s ambition to cement her Afro-centric foreign policy.

After his reelection in 2017, President Kenyatta continued to commit to an Afro-centric foreign policy. During his inauguration on 28 November 2018, he underscored Kenya’s commitment to Pan-Africanism with a pledge to all Africans visiting Kenya to be eligible for a visa upon arrival. He also promised that all East African will be treated as Kenyans and they will be free to “work, do business; own property, farm and [..] and marry and settle in Kenya”.

President Uhuru Kenyatta with China's President Xi Jinping

President Kenyatta’s appointment of Amb. Monica Juma to head the MFA further reinforces his foreign policy ambitions. She is a career diplomat and an academic who has written on Kenya’s peace and security policies. Her entry into the MFA has brought scholarly rigor into Kenya’s diplomacy. She was instrumental in Kenya’s push to defer the ICC cases at the African Union – and has been described as an excellent behind the scenes operator.

Under President Kenyatta, Kenya has showed that it wants to take charge in regional and international issues. Through the five diplomatic pillars of Kenya’s foreign policy, President Kenyatta is going about strengthening Kenyan interests globally. The meeting with US President Donald Trump will further strengthen the trade ties between the two states. Kenya also remains America’s key ally in the region. The meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing will also bolster trade and investments and enhancing manufacturing – which is one of the President’s Big Four Agenda.

Significance of John Kerry East Africa Visit

US Secretary of State John Kerry visited three countries in East Africa. The visit to Kenya and Djibouti was open in his itinerary but his visit to Somalia was surprising to say the least and according to FP's David Francis "too dangerous". It has been said that his visit to Kenya was to make preparations for President Obama's visit in July. For Kenya, a country that has suffered the brunt of terrorism in the past few years, Kerry's visit and that of President Obama, is a welcome sign of American support to Kenya's fight against Al Shabaab. Kerry's visit further highlight the strides Kenya has made in reshaping her foreign policy which, after the election of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto was stained. Kenya's foreign affairs docket headed by Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohammed has been transformed remarkably. The country has been able to balance its international obligations well by luring new friends and even rediscovering old foes. An example was Kenya's welcoming of Iran Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in February where they discussed trade and investment between the two countries. 

John Kerry in Kenya

John Kerry while in Kenya met and discussed on various issues with top government officials, members of the opposition and civil societies. Of greater significance was the US pledge of $100 million to boost counter-terrorism in Kenya and a further $45 million to go to refugee aid. John Kerry also pledged support for deradicalization programs to prevent the youth from joining terror networks. US support for counter-terrorism will include intelligence sharing, law enforcement and border security. Although this support does not come without strings, it is a welcome addition to Kenya's fight against terrorism. Kerry's visit comes a month after the Garrisa university attacks that claimed 147 souls. 

Kerry's surprise visit to Somalia, a first for a US Secretary of State further buttress US efforts to combat violent extremism. It also showed according to Kerry "Washington's Commitment" to renewed ties between the two countries. Kerry met with Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud at the country's airport and later returned to Kenya. Key in their talks was insecurity caused by the Al Shabaab militant group. Kerry promised increased support of the AU mission to Somalia. 

Kerry in Somali - Picture courtesy of FP

Bradley Klapper reporting for Associated Press says Kerry's visit to Djibouti as one that highlights the importance of small nations in US policy. However, Djibouti remains a crucial state in the geopolitical setup of the Horn of Africa. The small country is base to US troops in Camp Lemmonier. With the ongoing Saudi airstrikes in Yemen aimed at Houthi rebels, it is expected that many Yemeni citizens will flee and take refuge in Somalia and Djibouti. Kerry will discuss the Yemen crisis together with his host President Omar Guelleh. 

Kerry while in Kenya also spoke on the Burundi situation which according to analysts is in the brink of a civil crisis. Pierre Nkurunziza, the Burundian president is seeking a third term contrary to the constitution and the Arusha reconciliation Accords. Protesters have since taken to the streets to oppose Nkurunziza's decision. Significantly, Kerry's East Africa visit illustrates US commitment to fighting terrorism in the region. For Kenya, the visit is another foreign policy triumph after a previous backlash and seemingly isolation.     

Uhuru Kenyatta and African Diplomacy

Nicodemus Minde-@decolanga

Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta seems to be a man on a mission to open up Kenya in the diplomatic circles. When he took oath of office in April 9, 2013, Mr. Kenyatta has conducted his diplomatic business very well (Read my analysis on Uhuru's FP). Unlike the prevision administrations, Uhuru Kenyatta is asserting Kenya's foreign policy and opening up the country to the world especially to Africa. During his inauguration, he stressed the need for fostering the East African Community ties. The East African national anthem was even played during the swearing in ceremony despite many of the Kenyan people not knowing it. He quickly forged close ties with Jakaya Kikwete, Tanzania's president and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda who spoke on behalf of the invited Heads of State and Government during the swearing in ceremony. Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi soon after paid President Kenyatta a courtesy visit at State House. Early this month, he also met with Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. 

When then went on and nominated Amina Abdi as the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs. Ms Abdi has vast international experience and the UN system in general. This tells you how much importance the president has placed on the foreign relations docket and the image of the country internationally. Despite the fact that he faces "a personal challenge" of the ICC as he put it during the second presidential elections, Mr. Kenyatta has really worked hard to reface the country's foreign relations image. During the African Union's Heads of States and Government in Addis in May, 2013, the President through a combination of proxy factors and government tactic, he persuaded the AU to ask for the deferral of the ICC cases back to Africa. It was deemed a success. His Deputy, William Ruto has also visited a number of African countries in what is he terms as missions to woo international investments.

This week President Kenyatta has visited Nigeria for the African Heads of State and Government two day special AU Summit on HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (A.T.M.) at Abuja International Conference Centre. The two nations signed three bilateral agreements to help boost ties. The agreements were signed by Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretaries Amb. Amina Mohamed and her Nigerian counterpart Mr.Olugbenga Ashiru. The three agreements signed are on the establishment of a Joint Commission for Cooperation, a Protocol on consultations between Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Kenya and Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and an MOU on mutual cooperation between the Foreign Service Institute of Kenya and the Foreign Service Academy of Nigeria.

He met Kenyans living there and also met Rwanda's Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo, where they spoke at length. President Kenyatta also separately met and held talks with Ethiopian Premier Hailemariam Desalegn and Vice President of Ghana Kwesi Amissah-Arthur on the sidelines of the Abuja +12 Summit at Abuja International Conference Center. The talks focused on matters of mutual interest both at the bilateral and regional levels. The President also flew to Democratic Republic of Congo where he met and held talks with his DRC counterpart President Joseph Kabila. The talks between the two leaders focused on matters of mutual interest both at the bilateral and regional level. 

The African diplomacy by President Kenyatta may be interpreted as a shift from the tradition of relations with only Western countries due to the charges he faces at the ICC. But it is quite interesting that he wants Kenya to be pursue an African based diplomacy which I think is the future for Africa. The efforts made by Kenyatta to align Kenya more with Africa is quite impressive and futuristic. The president also travels with a contingency of professionals of whom advise him and make concrete observations. This is what Kenya needs diplomatically.