Via Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA)
A total of 215 parliamentarians were sworn in on Monday, 20 August
2012, at a well-guarded ceremony at the Mogadishu airport, ushering in a
new era of reforms in Somalia. The ceremony marked the attainment of
one of the key milestones identified by the 2011 consultative meeting on
ending the transition in the country. In all, 60 more members are to be
added to the new parliament in order to attain the 275 full capacity of
the new House, which is supposed to be the Lower House of the
post-transition government in Somalia. Despite not being at full
capacity, the present number gives the House more than the 185
parliamentarians required to form a quorum.
Apart from marking a reformed parliament as envisaged
in the Roadmap, the swearing-in ceremony is significant in the recent
history of Somalia in a number of ways. It is the first time in the more
than two decades of conflict in the country that such a ceremony has
taken place on the soil of Somalia. Previous attempts to put in place
institutions, including parliament, took place outside the country. It
is also a reflection of the solid resolve and international commitment
to deal with the situation in Somalia and to end the transition in 2012.
Somalia has seen a number of extensions in the past and stakeholders
are bent on making sure this is not one of those.
The international community and a number of stakeholders have praised
the inauguration of the parliament and wished the people of Somalia
well. Among the numerous comments on the ceremony, United Nations (UN)
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called it a '...watershed moment on
their road to peace, stability and political transformation', while his
representative to Somalia, HE Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, who has been
key in all the processes in the run-up to the occasion, has described it
as a historic moment that '... marks the long-awaited end of the
transitional period in Somalia'.
As stated by Mahiga, 20 August 2012 was the actual date scheduled
for the end of the transition and therefore Somalia should in fact have
had a parliament, speaker and deputies, and a president in place by that
date. However, due to delays in meeting a number of the deadlines
largely blamed on the politics surrounding the selection and submission
of names by the traditional elders, and subsequently the vetting process
by the Technical Selection Committee (TSC), the whole process was
delayed. As a result, the deadline has passed without Somalia meeting
all the important milestones envisaged under the Roadmap.
Among the crucial milestones remaining is the
election of a speaker with his deputies and eventually a president, who
will in turn appoint a prime minister. Given the hurdles and allegations
of vote buying, and meddling by different stakeholders, the next steps
represent the most important stages of the process. They therefore
require great caution and circumspection in order not to derail the
gains made so far. Already, the rejection of about 70 nominations by the
TSC is creating tension as some of the clan leaders are refusing any
replacements to the names submitted. Questions are also emerging as to
why the TSC is not sticking to the criteria for selection and is
rejecting some names, since it is not a court of law. This could foment
trouble and ignite the age-old clan factor in the security dynamics of
the country, which is capable of derailing the process. Such questions
have already significantly affected the legitimacy of the process and
need to be watched much more closely.
The politics surrounding the election of the speaker and the president
are two remaining crucial issues. This is because the two positions
cannot go to the same clan and, as such, clans may try to play their
cards to get the optimum result, given the winner-takes-all-nature of
the politics surrounding the transition. The situation is still
extremely fragile and the country would benefit from maximum support
from the international community, while ensuring Somali-centeredness and
ownership.
Although Somalia did not meet the deadline for the selection of the
speaker and the president, the swearing-in of parliamentarians is a
watershed moment for a country that has been riddled with lawlessness
for 20 years. The progress made has given new hope to some Somalis and
renewed the faith of the international community in the peace process.
