Political party defection is a sign of unstable party democracy and/or
jockeying for political positions. Defections happen from ruling party to the
opposition and from the opposition to the ruling party. In African fledgling
democracies, party defections are not about ideology or philosophic
underpinnings. Party switching in many African states is largely driven by
ethno-demographic and religious factors. These factors have also informed
political party formation. Party switching is also a strategic political manoeuvring.
Despite Tanzania boasting of national parties, political party strength is
largely regional. We're now witnessing a surge in party defections from across
the parties.
The defection of former PM Edward Lowassa from CCM to Chadema in 2015
was monumental, especially it coming just before a general election. The
election season several high-profile defections. Defections from a dominant
ruling party like CCM to the opposition is always huge. CCM's single party
dominance has continuously been challenged. There has been attempts at opposition
unity and we’re now witnessing defections. CCM is also benefitting from
defections from the opposition. It has become a show of who can reap more from
the defections!
My analysis: This is a sign of dissatisfaction in how parties are being
run in Tanzania. It is also an indication that despite CCM's dominance, there
is a growing apathy within the party which is causing these defections. With
the opposition losing its members through defections, it means there is something
wrong in their parties. Despite CCM’ dwindling fortunes, opposition switching allegiances
means that it remains a core party whose legacy resonates with the national
character of Tanzania.