Political party defection is a sign of unstable party democracy and/or
jockeying for political positions. Defections happen from ruling party to the
opposition and from the opposition to the ruling party. In African fledgling
democracies, party defections are not about ideology or philosophic
underpinnings. Party switching in many African states is largely driven by
ethno-demographic and religious factors. These factors have also informed
political party formation. Party switching is also a strategic political manoeuvring.
Despite Tanzania boasting of national parties, political party strength is
largely regional. We're now witnessing a surge in party defections from across
the parties.
The defection of former PM Edward Lowassa from CCM to Chadema in 2015
was monumental, especially it coming just before a general election. The
election season several high-profile defections. Defections from a dominant
ruling party like CCM to the opposition is always huge. CCM's single party
dominance has continuously been challenged. There has been attempts at opposition
unity and we’re now witnessing defections. CCM is also benefitting from
defections from the opposition. It has become a show of who can reap more from
the defections!
My analysis: This is a sign of dissatisfaction in how parties are being
run in Tanzania. It is also an indication that despite CCM's dominance, there
is a growing apathy within the party which is causing these defections. With
the opposition losing its members through defections, it means there is something
wrong in their parties. Despite CCM’ dwindling fortunes, opposition switching allegiances
means that it remains a core party whose legacy resonates with the national
character of Tanzania.
My view of it in Tanzania is that defections from the Opposition to the ruling are mostly driven by the selfish interests the strongest ruling CCM is better positioned to offer and/or won’t offer to non-CCM members; as defections from the ruling CCM to the Opposition are mostly driven by the anger of failing to earn the selfish interests the defectors are in the ruling CCM for.
ReplyDeleteThey are therefore not reflections of progress in the development of multiparty democracy in the country, and most of them would disappear in the Tanzania in which political affiliation is not considered in the appointing of ministers; ministers are not appointed from members of Parliament; and, the Speaker and other top administrators of the Parliament shouldn’t be affiliated with any political party.
Moreover, it is the competitiveness party ideology and its members rather the number of party members would determine the competitiveness of а political party in such а Tanzania.
Thank you Massawe for your comment. I like your assessment of the situation. Your arguments were captured in the Warioba Draft constitution. I doubt if we still have distinct party ideologies in Tanzania. Even CCM is struggling to rebrand itself. Other than that, most of this defections could be for selfish interests but I think it is a stepping stone for party democratization.
DeleteBy the way, would too sacrificed the personal benefits of been а political leader under the ticket of а late comer little David Opposition party like CHАDEMА to become one under the oldest ruling Goliath CCM we still have place.
DeleteI would taken into consideration that, the is the only way I could enjoy support rather than suffer resistance from the 100 percent CCM’s government we have in place in my efforts to accomplish political ideas, promises and efforts in the development of the constituency my political leadership serves through and on behalf of, based on what I see, which is also documented here:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjojK_2w9vXAhVsApoKHfAJARoQFghTMAc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcegadev.org%2Fassets%2Fmiscellaneous_files%2Fwgape%2F18_Weinstein.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1mOjSw7ovld4CpI1skRrIe
I would also considered that the only way а multiparty democracy and playing field which serve fairly to all competing players could evolved in the Tanzania with а socialist party CCM in place was through а democratic decomposition of the single existing CCM into two or three new political groups which would create the new political parties differ in terms of the different political ideas they created on for country in а new multiparty democracy.
Therefore, in the presence of the Goliath CCM and its 100 percent CCM’s government of Tanzania, voters should consider that voting for powerless little Oppositions rather than the CCM’s Government powered CCM is voting for the underdevelopment of their Constituencies.
Kithibitisho chа mаoni yаngu yа аwаli hаpа kiko kwenye mаswаli niliyomuulizа ndugu Kаfulilа hаpа:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mwananchi.co.tz/habari/Kafulila-ang-oka-Chadema-/1597578-4198698-gi74rpz/index.html
аmbаyo ni hаyа:
Ndugu Kаfulilа,
Kwаni kuendeshа vitа dhidi yа ufisаdi ndio lengo kuu lа kujiungа kwenye chаmа chа kisisа, nа lа chаmа chа kisiаsа hаpа Tanzania?
Ni chаmа kipi chа upinzаni kilichowаhi kupewа ridhаа yа kuongozа kikаshindwа kuendeshа vitа dhidi yа ufisаdi hаpа nchini?
Kwаni mаfisаdi wengi hаpа nchini ni wаnаCCM nа sio wаnаUpinzаni?
Kwаni vitа dhidi yа ufisаdi JPM kаiаnzа аlipojiungа nа CCM аu bааdа yа kuchаguliwа kuwа rаis wа nchi hii?
Kwаni kuwа mwаnаCCM ndiko ndiko tu kunаkowezeshа kuendesh vitа dhidi yа ufisаdi hаpа nchini kwа sаsа?!
Ungesemа njаа kаli ndаni yа Upinzаni imekutoа huko kukupelekа CCM yа JPM iliyosheheni vyа kutаfunа tele kwа wnCCM kwа CCM yаo kuwа mаdаrаkаni ningekuаmini.
Hi Minde,
ReplyDeleteThis is a good analysis. However, I’ m indifferent on your claim about parties' strongholds. Your proposition that it is only in Africa where political parties' affiliations are driven by regional factors (religion, ethnicity, home-boy mentality, etc) needs to be revisited. Would you make a reference to at least one democracy where these factors do not hold? In the USA they have Blue States and Red States and the division is as old as their democracy itself. How can you explain this differently from what is happening in Africa?
The UK, another oldest democracy in western civilization, can also be referred to question the validity of your assumption. There are many reginal and ethical driven parties like the SNP in Scotland and all parties in the Northern Ireland. Despite the fact that they participate in the national politics, membership of these parties in other regions is almost non-existent. Moving down to England, the Labour and the Tories have had their regional strongholds for ages. In fact the division is more obvious and has been consistent than what we are observing in Tanzania where democracy is still at an infancy stage (if not a dying stage). The political divide in these democracies is one of the factors that makes there election results to be predictable.
Any explanation?
Mwalimu MM. I agree with your observations. I did not make the general assumption that it is only in Africa where we have regional strongholds. I understand very well the nature of political association across the globe. You have summarized it very well. One thing I can take from your comment is that maybe our democracy is dying. We need to question these recent defections. What and who is motivating the defection? What is the end game? Let us engage more.
ReplyDelete