By Muthuma Njenga
President Kenyatta is scheduled to
meet his counterpart POTUS Donald Trump at White House, Washington on Monday
27 August. The much anticipated and hyped meeting presents a chance for the
two head of States to formally engage for the first time since the election of
Donald Trump, with discussions ranging from trade to security issues. The visit
maintains its traditional skewed development nature: Kenya seeking to get more
funding (aid) in its 'Big
4' development programmes and regional security initiatives (Somalia
mission). Kenya will also be seeking to maximize on preferential trade deals
and opportunities and signing new ones. This comes at a time when US and China
are locked in tariffs confrontation which could lead to a trade war, in this
scenario Kenya proves to be an important pawn if there were to be a trade war
between the two global economic giants, owing to the fact that Kenya is the
economic gateway to the eastern region of the continent.
Trade
discussions are expected to stretch to Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA),
where the US is mulling on replacing 18-year multilateral program with
preferential bilateral programs with respective African states, Kenya being
fronted as one of the first States to benefit from the new program. The
ministries of foreign affairs and trade and industrialization are keen to
clinch the deal which has its shortcomings and poses a threat to 'Big 4'.
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| President Uhuru Kenyatta. Picture courtesy |
Under manufacturing pillar,
Textile and leather industries are key sub-sectors which the Kenyan government
want to revive. Their revival terms and solution has been easy: reduce inflow
of cheap second-hand clothes into the country. Prior to the Big 4, EAC head of
States had sought to revive the textile industry in the region. They directed
ministers of trade to draft regulations to guard local textile and leather
products back in 2015. The ministers presented a draft policy document whose
main recommendation was a joint restriction on imported second hand clothes and
shoes. The draft policy was adopted unanimously and was set to be implemented
by 2018. However only Rwanda took the leap of faith and courage by slapping
imported second hand clothes and shoes with the agreed 25% EAC joint tariff.
This causing a possible trade confrontation between Rwanda
and US (which benefits highly from exporting second hand clothes), where US
threatened to withdraw AGOA privileges from Rwanda.
Kenya
and its two counterparts Uganda and Tanzania choose to stick to a 'pragmatic'
policy of wait and see, and eventually 'chickened out' of the agreed tariff
proposal. Defending Kenya's move former industrialization CS Adan Mohammed
cited effects of the burn to importers and entrepreneurs of mitumba, and also
considering the ultimate consequence; Kenya losing the AGOA privileges where it
benefits greatly by exporting textile and apparels products. which are very
valid justifications, but do not offer a long-term solution to the crippled
local textile and Leather industries.
The Kenyan delegation will be faced
with a great task of balancing between AGOA and Big 4. On big 4, they will seek
funding to revive the local textile industry, and on the other hand the Kenyan
delegation will have to appease the US delegation by caving in on mitumba restrictions so as to clinch the
new bilateral deal, with the latter likely to carry the day. We might gain one
and loose the other but we will certainly, never gain both.
Muthuma Njenga
International Relations Student
Technical University of Kenya
