CUF and CCM parties will renew
‘hostilities’ in the Dimani parliamentary by-election on 22 January 2017. Dimani’s
MP Hafidh Tahir (CCM) passed away in November 2016 and the by-election will be
a battle between Zanzibar’s two major political parties. At the launch of the
campaigns, both parties took a dig on each other with the controversies of the
2015 General Elections still a topical issue. CCM’s Secretary General
Abdulrahman Kinana at the launch of CCM’s campaigns took a swipe at CUF’s
leader Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad asking him to “resign” from the party after
years of failure to secure the presidency in Zanzibar. Kinana also allayed the
street talk that Maalim Seif would be one-day declared president stating that
CUF has to wait until 2020 for another election. On his part, Maalim Seif
labeled Kinana’s message as “absurd” further saying that “Kinana doesn’t know
what is happening in Zanzibar.” CUF will be looking to win the Dimani
by-election in order to boost their otherwise waning political influence in
Zanzibar after boycotting the 2016 reelection. CCM will want to reclaim the
seat and send a message to CUF.
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| A CUF supporter |
2015 General Election Intrigues
The annulment of the elections in
October, 2015 in Zanzibar rekindled political fissures and fault lines that had
been muted as a result of the reconciliation agreement and formation of a unity
government in 2010. A subsequent reelection in March, 2016 further plunged
Zanzibar into political uncertainties. The Chairman of the Zanzibar Electoral
Commission (ZEC) Jecha Salim annulled the 25 October 2015 elections which by
all means was unconstitutional and the decision was seen as a political move to
spare the ruling party CCM’s blushes – all pointers showed that it was going to
lose with the main opposition CUF headed for an outright victory. Nonetheless,
the decision was made to annul the elections and have a reelection. Jecha’s
decision was a personal one and was not consultative as admitted by two ZEC Commissioners from the CUF side. Jecha cited massive irregularities in the elections as the reason for the nullification of
the elections.
The international observer missions as
well as representatives of different foreign missions in Tanzania condemned the decision but that did not deter the
electoral body’s decision to have a new election. CCM and CUF got into
inter-party negotiations to help resolve the impasse but ZEC made an
announcement in January 2015 to have a fresh election in March, 2015. CUF and
eight other opposition political parties announced that they would boycott the reelection. CUF maintained that its
candidate Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad had defeated
CCM’s Dr. Ali Mohammed Shein. CUF indicated that their tallies showed that they
had garnered 52.84% of the vote as opposed to Shein’s 46.28%.
CCM’s Dr. Ali Mohammed Shein was
declared winner in the reelection on 20 March 2015 by a whooping 91.4%
with CCM winning all the seats in the House of Representatives. The results
showed increased support for CCM as compared to the October 2015 elections – an
indication of a probable manipulation of the results. For example, in Chumbuni
constituency in Unguja CCM had received 4,892 votes in the October 2015 but
figures in the reelection showed that the party got 8,954 votes an increase of
4,062 votes. The inflation of figures for Pemba, an area that CUF enjoys
massive support were even more contemptible with CCM share of votes increasing
by over 50,000 as compared to the October elections. It was argued that ZEC did
this in an attempt to legitimize the election which witnessed very low turnout
as evidenced by the writer. ZEC declared Ali Mohammed Shein winner on 21 March
2015, a day after the election – having failed to declare a winner for three
days before the fateful annulment on 28 October 2015.
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| Kinana with CCM candidate for Dimani |
End of GNU
Shein was sworn in as president and appointed
three members from the fringe opposition parties to cabinet. The appointments
were seen as a recourse to the demise of the Government of National Unity
(GNU). The GNU was negotiated largely to accommodate CCM and CUF in a
consosciational democracy format. CCM and CUF are Zanzibar’s two biggest
political parties. Dr. Ali Mohammed Shein reappointed Ambassador Seif Ali Iddi
as the Second Vice President based on the 2010 GNU agreement popularly known as
the Maridhiano (Reconciliation) Agreement. The position of the First Vice
President, a constitutional position reserved for the party that comes second
in the election. That notwithstanding, the Shein-led government opted not to
fill the position. The spirit of the reconciliation was officially dead. It was
widely expected that the House of Representatives (HoR) would dismantle the GNU
due to their absolute majority.
For
example, Section 80 of the Constitution
of Zanzibar looks at the change of the constitution and the powers of
the House of Representatives therein. While Section 80A(1) of the constitution
states that “without considering the provisions of Section 80 of the
constitution, the House of Representatives cannot make any constitutional
changes regarding any provision in any section as outlined in subsection (2) of
this section, only if the changes are approved by people through a referendum.”
According to 80A these are all sections in the First Chapter of the
constitution, Section 9 (Government and the People), all sections in Chapter
Three, Section 26; Section 28; all sections of Part II and Part III of the
Fourth Chapter with the exception of Section 49 and 50; and Section 80A; and
Sections 121(1) and 123 of Chapter Ten. It is thus significant to observe that
Section 9 alluded in 80A is one on the Government of National Unity.
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| Lowassa joins the launch of CUF campaigns in Dimani |
Further,
in Section 80A(3) of the Zanzibar Constitution, any Section mentioned in
80A(2), can be changed without a referendum in the event the House of
Representatives through a Special Declaration passed and supported by two-
thirds (2/3) of the Members present and voted, are satisfied that the changes
envisaged are in order and that the issue at hand will not affect the
principles of the said section. It is with this section that an absolute CCM majority
HoR can decide to amend the constitution and terminate the GNU format
completely. However, the Section states that “the [Section] should outline
openly the issue that is of controversy and must not affect principles of the
said section.” The GNU framework
as outlined in the constitution provided an opportunity to reconcile the isles
after decades of political schisms between CCM and CUF.
Politically,
CCM was not ready to risk an international wrath by dismantling the GNU. CCM
has subtly opted to run the government without openly discussing the
possibility of getting rid of the GNU. CUF had vowed not to recognize Dr. Shein
as president and at one time called for civil disobedience by urging its
supporters not to pay taxes and fess to an ‘illegitimate government’.
CUF
would want to use the Dimani by-election to rekindle their hopes for political
practicality in Zanzibar as they prepare for the elections in 2020. CUF
supporters would want to see their party reclaim its rightful place in the
politics of Zanzibar having been out on the dry since the March 2016
reelection. Dimani constituency remains a tricky area for CUF to win but the
party will be looking to put up a strong fight. CCM will be looking for
bragging rights if they reclaim the Dimani seat.
