The Westgate Terrorist Attack: Any Lessons for Kenya’s Approach to Regional Security?

My jointly written article was recently published on Kujenga Amani Website. The article analyzes security implications of the region following the Al Shabaab terror siege on Westagate on September 21. For further details see article here.

Kenyan Army captures Kismayo: The Implications

Picture courtesy of Al Jazeera

Nicodemus M. Minde

Friday 28^th October 2012: Kenyan army says it has entered Somali port city of Kismayo and captured an al-Shabab major military stronghold. “[Report that] Kismayo fell today to KDF [Kenyan Defence Forces] and TFG [Somali government troops] forces are indeed very true," Cyrus Oguna, military spokesman, told Kenya's Citizen television. Oguna said that the troops had entered Kismayo early on Friday. Kenya sent its troops into Somalia last October after the fighters were blamed for a series of raids on Kenyan soil targeting its security forces as well as Western tourists.

Ever since the KDF entered Somalia, Kenya has faced reprisal attacks many of which have been claimed by the Al Shabaab terror group. The implications of the seizure of Kismayo means more attacks aimed at Kenya. The militia group are notorious of grenade attacks aimed at religious targets mostly churches, entertainment spots and other key strategic places. With a majority of Al Shabaab sympathizers in Kenya mostly jobless youth who are radicalized by Islamic extremism, then it’s certain that Kenya should embrace itself for more reprisal attacks in the coming days.    

I dreamt of a Holiday to Somalia

Somali MPs chose a new president today. This comes after periods of relative calm in the Horn of Africa country. After decades of civil war brought about by clan based violence and later Islamic insurgency, Somalia is coming to birth. After the election of new Members of Parliament late last month, the newly-elected MPs are convening at a police academy in Mogadishu for the secret ballot to elect a new president. This comes after the passing of a new constitution which has laid the foundations of building a new Somalia. 

I remember telling my friends that I will one day go to Somalia for holiday. My friends brushed me off in such a sarcastic manner. For me, I saw that Somalia will one day abandon their guns and go to the ballot. Somalia is a great nation with beautiful people. Filled with vibrancy, the Somali people are renowned for their business grit and strong entrepreneurial acumen. I know they will build their nation. I wish them well.   

Somalia in Transition: New parliament inaugurated

Via Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) 

A total of 215 parliamentarians were sworn in on Monday, 20 August 2012, at a well-guarded ceremony at the Mogadishu airport, ushering in a new era of reforms in Somalia. The ceremony marked the attainment of one of the key milestones identified by the 2011 consultative meeting on ending the transition in the country. In all, 60 more members are to be added to the new parliament in order to attain the 275 full capacity of the new House, which is supposed to be the Lower House of the post-transition government in Somalia. Despite not being at full capacity, the present number gives the House more than the 185 parliamentarians required to form a quorum. 

Apart from marking a reformed parliament as envisaged in the Roadmap, the swearing-in ceremony is significant in the recent history of Somalia in a number of ways. It is the first time in the more than two decades of conflict in the country that such a ceremony has taken place on the soil of Somalia. Previous attempts to put in place institutions, including parliament, took place outside the country. It is also a reflection of the solid resolve and international commitment to deal with the situation in Somalia and to end the transition in 2012. Somalia has seen a number of extensions in the past and stakeholders are bent on making sure this is not one of those.

The international community and a number of stakeholders have praised the inauguration of the parliament and wished the people of Somalia well. Among the numerous comments on the ceremony, United Nations (UN) Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has called it a '...watershed moment on their road to peace, stability and political transformation', while his representative to Somalia, HE Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, who has been key in all the processes in the run-up to the occasion, has described it as a historic moment that '... marks the long-awaited end of the transitional period in Somalia'.

As stated by Mahiga, 20 August 2012 was the actual date scheduled for the end of the transition and therefore Somalia should in fact have had a parliament, speaker and deputies, and a president in place by that date. However, due to delays in meeting a number of the deadlines largely blamed on the politics surrounding the selection and submission of names by the traditional elders, and subsequently the vetting process by the Technical Selection Committee (TSC), the whole process was delayed. As a result, the deadline has passed without Somalia meeting all the important milestones envisaged under the Roadmap.

Among the crucial milestones remaining is the election of a speaker with his deputies and eventually a president, who will in turn appoint a prime minister. Given the hurdles and allegations of vote buying, and meddling by different stakeholders, the next steps represent the most important stages of the process. They therefore require great caution and circumspection in order not to derail the gains made so far. Already, the rejection of about 70 nominations by the TSC is creating tension as some of the clan leaders are refusing any replacements to the names submitted. Questions are also emerging as to why the TSC is not sticking to the criteria for selection and is rejecting some names, since it is not a court of law. This could foment trouble and ignite the age-old clan factor in the security dynamics of the country, which is capable of derailing the process. Such questions have already significantly affected the legitimacy of the process and need to be watched much more closely.

The politics surrounding the election of the speaker and the president are two remaining crucial issues. This is because the two positions cannot go to the same clan and, as such, clans may try to play their cards to get the optimum result, given the winner-takes-all-nature of the politics surrounding the transition. The situation is still extremely fragile and the country would benefit from maximum support from the international community, while ensuring Somali-centeredness and ownership.

Although Somalia did not meet the deadline for the selection of the speaker and the president, the swearing-in of parliamentarians is a watershed moment for a country that has been riddled with lawlessness for 20 years. The progress made has given new hope to some Somalis and renewed the faith of the international community in the peace process.