#Iran Nuclear Talks: Who's the real loser?

Every week I post an interesting article on issues foreign policy and international affairs. Today, we look at an article by Camelia Entekhabifard who analyses the ongoing Iran nuclear talks with the P5+1 posted on Al Jazeera website opinion space. 

She posits that as much as China and Russia side with Iran, the end of sanctions in Iran will not go down well in Beijing and Moscow respectively. She is of the idea that Russia, China and black marketeers all have something in common - that is, they have nothing to lose if the talks fails. Iran would likely grow more reliant on Russia as a regional security buffer and Russia would lose an oil and gas competitor and might even secure a better deal with Iran if the talks fall apart.

Another interesting point made here is on the stability of the region. The Middle East region faces numerous security challenges. Israel, an arch enemy of Iran is now fighting Palestine's Hamas. In what started as kidnapping of Israelis, the retaliatory attacks have killed over 200 Palestine people in the last week. It has been argued that a failure of the Iran Nuclear Talks will further destabilize the region. For more indepth analysis see link below. 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/iran-nuclear-talks-20147156547235397.html

Mtanzania wrong to insinuate that Kenya could be behind the Arusha Attacks

Arusha town has been hit by spasmodic bomb attacks in the recent past. There have been attacks during opposition political rallies as well as a bomb thrown into a Catholic Church in Olasiti during its inauguration last year. This year a bomb was thrown into a local pub injuring a number of people. Just last week a bomb was thrown inside the house of a Muslim cleric as he broke fast. Tanzania has enjoyed peace and stability for the better part of her history. The recent wave of attacks are reminiscent to the Al Shabaab and Boko Haram terror attacks in Kenya and Nigeria respectively. The Al Shabaab and Boko Haram menace are largely Islamic extremism. Kenya and Nigeria have had a torrid time and this has seen their international standing fade quite considerably. 

Two days ago, Arusha was hit by another bomb attack, this time in an Indian restaurant called Vama. Eight people have been seriously wounded with one victim's leg amputated. Speculation on the causes and who could responsible for the attack is rife. I have closely followed the reporting of the incidence from a local and international standpoint.

Tanzania newspaper report on the bomb attack in Arusha

Local newspapers have today carried headlines of the Arusha incidence. One local newspaper, Mtanzania has caught my attention. It has carried a headline "Siri Milipuko ya Mabomu Arusha yabainika". This loosely translates: "Secret behind Arusha bombings revealed". Reading the story, Mtanzania quotes a tourism stakeholder who implicates Kenya to the Arusha attacks. He says that Kenya is using all means to cripple the tourism sector in Tanzania. He says that the main aim is to scare away tourists who are fleeing Kenya due to insecurity and finding alternative destination in Tanzania. 

I have also spoken to a number of my friends here in Arusha and they believe this could be one of the reasons to the attacks. Arusha town is the gateway to a number of tourist sites in Tanzania. The Guardian Nigeria reports in its website that "Arusha is a key town for Tanzania's tourist industry, a major source of foreign currency for the eastern African country."

The police is yet to establish the motive of this recent attack. It is however wrong to implicate a foreign country without substantive evidence. Kenya and Tanzania have been good friendly countries for many years. Despite competition in the tourism market, it is foolhardy, inappropriate and impetuous to imagine this. The security personnel in Arusha should reexamine itself and intercept impending acts of violence which could just local criminal operations.        

#WorldPolitics: Why is the World Cup more exciting than World Politics?

I will be posting links to interesting articles touching on International Politics and Foreign Policy in my blog from today. 

Here is an interesting analysis by Hamid Dabashi, one of my favorite authors and commentator of world affairs. He ponders why the World Cup is more interesting than World Politics. Even though he hasnt mentioned the fact that he has been over the moon for Iran national team qualification to the World Cup and the somewhat inspiring performance, I believe this article has been highly motivated with #TeamMelli. I was also supporting Iran by the way.  

Here is the article courtesy of Aljazeera:  Why is the World Cup more exciting than world politics?

Iran World Cup Cartoon

The Two Karumes; A Bicycle and and a Range Rover

A picture of a gray-haired Mwalimu Julius Nyerere hangs on bedroom wall. Besides it is a small picture of Thomas Sankara in a military combat and red beret and on my study table lies a picture of Martin Luther King as he addressed civil rights supporters at Lincoln Memorial in Washington in 1963. I admire these three men. They remind me who and what I want to be. They are all great men in the eyes of the world. Despite their glittering roles in modern history, their simplicity and modesty inspire me the most. 

This week am in Zanzibar for work. I have had an opportunity to visit the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) headquarters which was the venue Sheikh Abeid Amani Karume, the first president of Zanzibar was assassinated in 1972. Outside the party headquarters is his statue with a revolutionary message:

 Zanzibar Serikali yetu ni ya Usawa

Hakuna Bwana Juu ya Binadamu Mwenziwe

Kila Mwenye Haki Apewe

Tumepindua Kuondoa Mabaya

Lengo Letu

Kuleta Usawa na Maendeleo

Ubinafsi ni Adui wa Maendeleo

As you get inside the building, on the right hand corner is a small office where Mzee Karume used as an office and where he was killed. Inside the office is a small table with few chairs. Besides the chairs is Karume's bicycle. Am told that Mzee Karume always used this bike to go around and that was the only means of transport that he owned. 

Later in the day, as I take my colleague to the airport, we are stopped by police sirens. I ask my Zanzibar friend, Salim what this was about. "Karume is going to the mosque for Friday prayers," he tells me. A white porsche Range Rover pulls over at the mosque and Amani Karume (immediate former president of Zanzibar and son of Mzee Karume) walks out and heads to the mosque. Am told his house is barely a kilometer from the mosque. I try to juxtapose my morning encounter with this and am dumbstruck. How times change! After all, we are not all cut from the same cloth!

Ramadhan Kareem from Zanzibar.

Is the Date of General Election Silent in Tanzania's Draft Constitution?

Elections are the recipe for true democracy. They embody pluralism, equality, and representation in a given polity. In any given democracy, elections are held once in every agreed time frame as established by the country's constitution. They could be once in every four, five or seven years. With an established national electoral body, elections are done, depending on the government structure, from the ward representatives all the way to the president. 

The US, which is the semblance of true democracy outlines the date of elections as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Kenya's new constitution outlines the date of election for the six elected officials as the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year. Article 101 (1) of the Constitution of Kenya outlines that, the general elections of members of parliament shall be held on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year while Article 136 (2)(a) states that the election of the President shall be held on the same day of the general election of MPs. This date also applies to the County Assembly Members (See Article 177) and Gubernatorial elections (Article 180).  

Repressive African regimes in the past have used the election date as a weapon against the opposition. This together with the unilateral appointment of the chairman of the electoral body and it members has been used to surprise the opposition by catching them unprepared making it easy for the ruling incumbent to sweep victory, albeit through fraudulent manner.

Tanzania's draft constitution is pretty silent on the election date. I have looked at the draft carefully reading each chapter and article but I have not come across the direct mention of an election date. Critics have argued that the public, politicians and the members of the Constituent Assembly have placed too much attention on the structure of the union (the most contentious issue) leaving other important subjects. As am not a constitutional expert, I welcome views on this.       

The Movie Blended: Why it was done in South Africa and not Tanzania

The Movie Blended

Last June, Tanzania was voted the best Safari Country in Africa by SafariBookings.com. Some of the reasons given among many were; superb wildlife, the great annual wildebeest migration across the Serengeti and Masai Mara, the exquisite authentic African wilderness, availability of wide ranging budget safari options, beautiful sandy beaches of Zanzibar and political stability of the country. Tanzania is well blessed with good tourist attraction and hospitable people. We have prided ourselves as such. In the East African region, Tanzania competes with her neighbor Kenya in the tourism sector. Both countries rely significantly on tourism as a source of foreign revenue. In addition to Kenya's somewhat better physical transport infrastructure, the country has advertised itself better internationally as a centre of tourism in the region. Kenya has branded itself better than Tanzania. Just two weeks ago, a picture ran in various social media sites of the new Kenya Airways (KQ) dreamliner christened Mt. Kilimanjaro. There was the usual hue and cry from a section of Tanzanians that Kenya is 'stealing' our mountain.

A scene in South Africa in the movie blended

I just watched the movie Blended, which stars Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. This romantic comedy further highlights Tanzania's lack of aggressive tourism advertisement. A blind date between Jim Friedman (Adam Sandler) and Lauren Reynolds (Drew Barrymore) went bad and as fate would have it land tickets to a family vacation in Africa. Their destination was to this family resort in South Africa. The great tourist attractions of South Africa are showcased in the movie. Their national parks, their cultures, hospitality (can't match Tanzania's) and the general experience. What great advertisement!

As the best safari country in Africa, I was expecting the tourism ministry in Tanzania to have lobbied hard to showcase our country (Do they even know about the movie in the first place?). The ostrich ride cannot match beauties of the Great Ruaha National Park, the hot balloon ride can be matched by the Serengeti balloon experience. We could showcase the vast Ngorongoro escarpments, the mighty Kilimanjaro, the beautiful Zanzibar, the chimps in Gombe National Park. Or the plains of Serenora and Lobo in Serengeti which are the habitats of lions, cheetahs, leopards, rhinos, elephants, warthogs, baboons, monkeys etc. But again, the government is doing nothing to the ever increasing poaching activities in our parks. Elephant and rhino tusks are traded like bananas. The government vacuously watches on with government officials implicated in this illicit trade. Again I ask myself, maybe it is good that the movie opted for South Africa. When will we learn? As they say "Let sleeping dogs lie."   

Tanzania’s Foreign Policy: Need for Assertive Regional Approach

President Obama has been advancing American foreign policy this week.  First at the lawns of Rose Garden where he provided America’s withdrawal timetable from Afghanistan and at West Point where he spoke to the newest graduates of US Army. The catch-phrase of his speech was “America Must Always Lead”. President Obama affirmed that United States is a global leader and a nation that “must always lead on the world stage.” Some critics have labeled his speech as vacuous while others described it empty. America has always projected its foreign policy on a world stage. Its key foreign policy pillars include democracy, human rights, good governance, and world security. 

I followed Tanzania’s Foreign Minister Bernard Membe’s budget speech where he gave his ministry’s budget estimates, revenue and expenditure for the year 2013-2014. I picked up a number of foreign policy articulations from his speech. Tanzania has always played a significant role in world affairs. Historically, Tanzania has been the center for liberation struggle in Africa. Southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, Angola and Namibia credit Tanzania for their liberation. Of late Tanzania has been embroiled in a diplomatic spat with Rwanda and at the time of writing this, British envoy to Tanzania is been accused of being complicit to the acquisition of Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL) which is controversial. Foreign Minister Bernard Membe has also been hosting his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davatoglu. These are all FP projections from Tanzania.

Bernard Membe’s budget speech in parliament outlined Tanzania’s stand on a number of world issues. He outlined Tanzania’s position on ongoing conflicts such as those in Syria, Central African Republic and Mali. As much as Tanzania is trying to project its foreign policy at the continental and world stage, it is imperative that regional FP should rank highest. Foreign policy has been defined as the strategic positioning of a state towards other states with national interests as the focal point. A well outlined foreign policy is fundamental in foreign engagements. Going by Membe’s speech in parliament, Tanzania seems to be somehow, neglecting regional policy. The excuse could be there is an East African Affairs Ministry which is tasked to deal with regional matters. This notwithstanding, the Foreign Affairs Ministry is the nerve of foreign policy articulation in any state. The speech did not exclusively address the diplomatic spat with Rwanda either. I was also expecting the speech to also touch on the threat of terrorism in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania’s seemingly isolation by the Coalition of the Willing (CoW) states of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. The Al Shabaab terror in Kenya could cross boarder and wreak havoc in Tanzania. Membe was however very articulate in economic diplomacy, where he contextualized it in terms of health, agriculture, livestock and fishing, industries and infrastructure and transport. He also buttressed the need of having dual citizenship in Tanzania.

Tanzania is geopolitically well positioned to be a focal point in the region. It should be more assertive in regional FP and just like the US have a say in many regional matters and lead at the regional stage.