Kenyatta-Trump Meeting: The 'Big 4'- AGOA Conundrum

By Muthuma Njenga

President Kenyatta is scheduled to meet his counterpart POTUS Donald Trump at White House, Washington on Monday 27 August. The much anticipated and hyped meeting presents a chance for the two head of States to formally engage for the first time since the election of Donald Trump, with discussions ranging from trade to security issues. The visit maintains its traditional skewed development nature: Kenya seeking to get more funding (aid) in its 'Big 4' development programmes and regional security initiatives (Somalia mission). Kenya will also be seeking to maximize on preferential trade deals and opportunities and signing new ones. This comes at a time when US and China are locked in tariffs confrontation which could lead to a trade war, in this scenario Kenya proves to be an important pawn if there were to be a trade war between the two global economic giants, owing to the fact that Kenya is the economic gateway to the eastern region of the continent.

Trade discussions are expected to stretch to Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), where the US is mulling on replacing 18-year multilateral program with preferential bilateral programs with respective African states, Kenya being fronted as one of the first States to benefit from the new program. The ministries of foreign affairs and trade and industrialization are keen to clinch the deal which has its shortcomings and poses a threat to 'Big 4'.

President Uhuru Kenyatta. Picture courtesy 

Under manufacturing pillar, Textile and leather industries are key sub-sectors which the Kenyan government want to revive. Their revival terms and solution has been easy: reduce inflow of cheap second-hand clothes into the country. Prior to the Big 4, EAC head of States had sought to revive the textile industry in the region. They directed ministers of trade to draft regulations to guard local textile and leather products back in 2015. The ministers presented a draft policy document whose main recommendation was a joint restriction on imported second hand clothes and shoes. The draft policy was adopted unanimously and was set to be implemented by 2018. However only Rwanda took the leap of faith and courage by slapping imported second hand clothes and shoes with the agreed 25% EAC joint tariff. This causing a possible trade confrontation between Rwanda and US (which benefits highly from exporting second hand clothes), where US threatened to withdraw AGOA privileges from Rwanda.

Kenya and its two counterparts Uganda and Tanzania choose to stick to a 'pragmatic' policy of wait and see, and eventually 'chickened out' of the agreed tariff proposal. Defending Kenya's move former industrialization CS Adan Mohammed cited effects of the burn to importers and entrepreneurs of mitumba, and also considering the ultimate consequence; Kenya losing the AGOA privileges where it benefits greatly by exporting textile and apparels products. which are very valid justifications, but do not offer a long-term solution to the crippled local textile and Leather industries.

The Kenyan delegation will be faced with a great task of balancing between AGOA and Big 4. On big 4, they will seek funding to revive the local textile industry, and on the other hand the Kenyan delegation will have to appease the US delegation by caving in on mitumba restrictions so as to clinch the new bilateral deal, with the latter likely to carry the day. We might gain one and loose the other but we will certainly, never gain both.

Muthuma Njenga

International Relations Student

Technical University of Kenya

Tanzania’s Foreign Policy: Need for Assertive Regional Approach

President Obama has been advancing American foreign policy this week.  First at the lawns of Rose Garden where he provided America’s withdrawal timetable from Afghanistan and at West Point where he spoke to the newest graduates of US Army. The catch-phrase of his speech was “America Must Always Lead”. President Obama affirmed that United States is a global leader and a nation that “must always lead on the world stage.” Some critics have labeled his speech as vacuous while others described it empty. America has always projected its foreign policy on a world stage. Its key foreign policy pillars include democracy, human rights, good governance, and world security. 

I followed Tanzania’s Foreign Minister Bernard Membe’s budget speech where he gave his ministry’s budget estimates, revenue and expenditure for the year 2013-2014. I picked up a number of foreign policy articulations from his speech. Tanzania has always played a significant role in world affairs. Historically, Tanzania has been the center for liberation struggle in Africa. Southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, Angola and Namibia credit Tanzania for their liberation. Of late Tanzania has been embroiled in a diplomatic spat with Rwanda and at the time of writing this, British envoy to Tanzania is been accused of being complicit to the acquisition of Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL) which is controversial. Foreign Minister Bernard Membe has also been hosting his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davatoglu. These are all FP projections from Tanzania.

Bernard Membe’s budget speech in parliament outlined Tanzania’s stand on a number of world issues. He outlined Tanzania’s position on ongoing conflicts such as those in Syria, Central African Republic and Mali. As much as Tanzania is trying to project its foreign policy at the continental and world stage, it is imperative that regional FP should rank highest. Foreign policy has been defined as the strategic positioning of a state towards other states with national interests as the focal point. A well outlined foreign policy is fundamental in foreign engagements. Going by Membe’s speech in parliament, Tanzania seems to be somehow, neglecting regional policy. The excuse could be there is an East African Affairs Ministry which is tasked to deal with regional matters. This notwithstanding, the Foreign Affairs Ministry is the nerve of foreign policy articulation in any state. The speech did not exclusively address the diplomatic spat with Rwanda either. I was also expecting the speech to also touch on the threat of terrorism in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania’s seemingly isolation by the Coalition of the Willing (CoW) states of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. The Al Shabaab terror in Kenya could cross boarder and wreak havoc in Tanzania. Membe was however very articulate in economic diplomacy, where he contextualized it in terms of health, agriculture, livestock and fishing, industries and infrastructure and transport. He also buttressed the need of having dual citizenship in Tanzania.

Tanzania is geopolitically well positioned to be a focal point in the region. It should be more assertive in regional FP and just like the US have a say in many regional matters and lead at the regional stage.

Rational Actor Model in Tanzania-Rwanda Diplomatic Spat

Foreign policy analysis is the resultant of human decision making with direct or indirect consequences on foreign entities. Foreign policy has been defined as those strategic goals formulated by a state in relation to another state. On a larger spectrum, foreign policy could also include strategic goals formulated by a state in relation to international organizations and or multinational corporations. Foreign policy involves goals, objectives, projections and outcomes which are premised on national interests which in typical International Relations discipline falls under the Realism school of thought (realpolitik). 

Tanzania and Rwanda have been embroiled in a diplomatic spat albeit an ambivalent one. For years, the two East African states have coexisted peacefully. They have enjoyed sound diplomatic relations which has seen Tanzania hosting the peace talks of 1993 between the then Hutu government and the then rebel Tutsi outfit of  RPA. After the unfortunate Rwandan Genocide of 1994, Tanzania has hosted the UN International Criminal Tribunal of Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha. This long and outstanding relationship seems to be on the rocks.  President Kikwete during the 50th anniversary of the African Union in Addis Ababa, called on Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel outfit because the military efforts have failed. In a quick rejoinder Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Foreign Minister described Kikwete’s remarks as “aberrant” and “shocking”. A war of word between the two states ensued with President Kagame allegedly publicly threatened to hit president Kikwete. See link for further details. 

The diplomatic tensions have since escalated with reports indicating President Kagame and Kikwete are not seeing eye to eye. As members of the East African Community, the two have been avoiding each other during EAC meetings. This has even resulted to the rise of the Coalition of the Willing (CoW) which includes Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda sidelining Tanzania and Burundi in what they term as Northern Corridor Infrastructural Projects. When Rwanda was marking the 20th Anniversary of the Rwandan Genocide on April 7, President Kikwete did not attend. Kikwete's excuse was that he was on the same day attending a national holiday in Zanzibar. When Tanzania was marking the 50th anniversary of the political union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar in April 26, President Kagame declined to attend. And during the EAC meeting in Arusha recently, Kagame did not attend instead he sent a representative. The height of this came last week during the World Economic Forum in Abuja, Nigeria. The two were in attendance but observers says that they avoided each other. Although it remains as speculation, it is evident that the tensions have reached fever pitch. 

While explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Graham Allison's seminal work captures three models of decision making that are crucial in foreign policy. Allison posits that the attempt to explain international events by recounting the aims and calculations of nations or governments is the trademark of the Rational Actor Model. The central unit of analysis here is government action which is influenced by government officials. In this case, the protagonists are the two heads of state and their Foreign Ministers. Tanzania's Foreign Minister Bernard Membe is an international relations scholar who understands the complexities of decision making. His Rwandan counterpart, Louise Mushikiwabo has also carried out her duties well and thoroughly understands her country's national interests. The basic precepts of rational actor model are (1) goals and objective; (2) alternatives; (3) consequences; and lastly (4) choice. These precepts formalize the concept of rational actions that underpins economics, decisions, and game theory as most importantly individual behavior. The outcomes of decisions that follows this model are mostly based on national interests and individual behavior which is value maximizing. 

Whilst this is the case, Tanzania and Rwanda must appreciate their long standing brotherly relationship that has endured troubled pasts. Longstanding foreign policy is not hinged upon personality or behavior of the head of state rather it is embedded on a historical appreciation of one another. This is what builds venerable ties between and among states.   

Why Tanzania is being excluded from the EAC

After posting a comment on my Facebook page on Tanzania's exclusion from the East African Community, one of my friends quickly reminded me of what has become a common phrase that "Tanzania is dragging its feet and we shall move on without you". Well, the threats are coming to fruition, with the rapid rise of "the coalition of the willing" of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda and most recently South Sudan. The coalition of the willing is a phrase that has been coined to refer to the commitments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to go it alone without Tanzania and Burundi. See my previous analysis on EAC woes here.

Having bilateral or for this case, trilateral meetings between and amongst states within the East African Community setup is not a problem. The Treaty of the EAC however, in Article 6 on the fundamental principles of the Community, is governed on mutual trust, political will and sovereign equality; peaceful coexistence and good neighborliness; and peaceful settlement of disputes. What Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda are doing is right pursuant to their national interests but not within the spirit of the Treaty. The Treaty establishes key organs which aid the running and operations of the bloc. These include; the summit, the council, the coordination committee, sectoral committees among eight other institutions. The summit which is composed of the Heads of States meet at least once a year to map and discuss important issues concerning the community. The recent meetings by the heads of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda dubbed as integration summits can be described as a mini summits. Tanzania has now been excluded from these meetings in three occasions now. They first met in Uganda, then in Mombasa and this week met in Kigali. It is no brainer that there is a deliberate attempt to exclude Tanzania and Burundi from "their" affairs.  The coordination committee which is made up of permanent secretaries responsible in respective country's EAC ministry is involved in the coordination of activities agreed by the summit and the council. The sectoral committee is involved in different sectors concerning the community such as infrastructure. The actions by the three countries which were centered on infrastructure should have involved both the coordination committee and the sectoral committee as agreed by the Treaty.

South Sudan has been seeking to join the EAC. This was evidenced by the attendance of Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan. Article 3 of the Treaty talks about membership and conditions for admitting a new member. In Article 3 (2) states that "The Partner States may, upon such terms and in such manner as they may determine, together negotiate with any foreign country the granting of membership to, or association of that country with, the Community or its participation in any of the activities of the Community. The meeting of the three states with South Sudan could be interpreted as going against the provisions of the Treaty since not all partner states were present when meeting South Sudan even if the subject of discussion wasn't on membership admission. 

Speaking in Parliament yesterday, Tanzania's East African Cooperation Minister Samuel Sitta threw spanner into the works when he said Tanzania's cooperation with DRC and Burundi was feasible. Mr. Sitta went on to say that Dar could divorce itself from the community. Methinks that he was just trying to be cynical whilst trying to flex Tanzania's muscles. Tanzania and Rwanda have had simmering tensions ever since President Kikwete called for Kigali to negotiate with the rebel outfit FDLR. Tanzania went forth to send her troops as part of the UN intervention brigade to DRC to help neutralize armed groups in the Eastern part of DRC. This did not auger well with Rwanda's president Paul Kagame. Tanzania has also been carrying out a nationwide operation to weed out illegal immigrants with many Rwandans falling victims. This also heightened the tensions.

Tanzania remains an integral component of the East African Community and a reliable partner. With Tanzania sharing a border with all the other four states, its influence remains very important.

Misinformation is EAC Integration's biggest Hurdle, not Tanzania

Nico Minde

Tanzania has occasionally been accused as a stumbling bloc to the efforts of greater and deeper integration of the East African Community. Detractors and doomsayers have gone as far labeling Tanzania a sympathetic and closer to the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A new term has now been coined by the other partner states to show their solidarity minus Tanzania "The coalition of the willing". This came after the heads of states of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda and some representatives from countries eyeing EAC membership met in the port city of Mombasa to discuss issues of trade. Tanzanian leaders reiterated that they were not invited. Tanzania's East African Community Affairs Minister Samuel Sitta has slammed this as "an act of isolation" and said that "Tanzania will not be bullied into fast-tracking the integration".  Tanzania's stance has always been a gradual and systematic approach to integration. 

The current tripartite coalition of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda is contrary to the spirit of the community. But that being said, EAC's biggest hurdle is not Tanzania but misinformation and lack of civic awareness among the people of East Africa. Many a times, the EAC has been labeled an elitist body. That couldn't be far from the truth. The bloc has turned into a boardroom agenda of the Summit, the Council of Ministers and other technocrats. Many rural people do not know what the East African Community is and what its goals are. The integration paths of Economic Union, Common Market Protocol, a Monetary Union and ultimately a Political Federation are virtually unknown to the local people.

Just the other day, angry Kenyans reacted on social media to the alleged chasing out of Kenyans from Tanzania using the hash tag #SomeoneTellTanzania and Tanzanians reacted with a similar #SomeoneTellKenya. Reading the tweets, one could see the level of misinformation among the citizens of East Africa. People know very little about one another. We do not appreciate our differences and strengths. We have become very insensitive to one another. This can only be remedied through thorough civic education. The EAC leadership under the General Secretary Richard Sezibera should aim at incorporating integration studies in the school curriculum, where children are taught to appreciate the values of their neighbors and this will no doubt strengthen the quest for regional integration.    

Kikwete responds diplomatically to Rwanda jibes

Nicodemus Minde

Tanzania's president Jakaya Kikwete has responded to the diplomatic spat between Tanzania and Rwanda. President Kikwete was very diplomatic in responding to the jibes and counter jibes coming from some quarters of Rwanda. Kikwete had early made proposals to the Rwanda government to negotiate with the FDLR militia. President Kikwete during the 50th anniversary of the African Union in Addis Ababa, called on Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel outfit because the military efforts have failed. In a quick rejoinder Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Foreign Minister described Kikwete’s remarks as “aberrant” and “shocking”. The simmering tensions have gone on for long now. As is alleged Rwanda's president Paul Kagame publicly threatened to hit president Kikwete. The following is an excerpt of his alleged tirade: 

"And those whom you recently heard speaking for the Interahamwe and FDLR, saying that we should negotiate with them. Negotiate with them? As for me, I do not even argue about this issue because I will wait for you at the right place and I will hit you!! I really did not… I didn’t even reply to him, I never arg… uh… it is known, there is a line you can’t cross. There is a line, there is a line that should never be crossed. Not once. It’s impossible!!…”

Jakaya Kikwete who previously served as Foreign Minister for ten years before he became president, has been very diplomatic in his response. Ideally, President Kikwete response embodies the tenets and principles of Tanzania's foreign policy. He used his monthly television and radio address to elaborate on the spat. "Our relations with Rwanda remain the same and nothing has changed" he said. President Kikwete said that he has heard a lot been said about him and Tanzania concerning the remarks he made. In a diplomatic and cordial language, Kikwete noted that the facts have been "completely been put out of proportion and completely out of context". He acknowledged Tanzania's close ties with its neighbors and the historical support Tanzania offered to Rwanda. In a calm demeanour Kikwete said he had nothing personal and against Kagame and that he was just airing his views. 

The response by Kikwete further highlights Tanzania's historical image of a peace-loving country. The country has modeled itself as an island of peace and a good neighbor as espoused in its key foreign policy pillars. The move by Kagame, which Kikwete notes, has deeper undertones. As a leader, Kikwete was entitled to give his views. If the views did not augur well with Rwanda, then its leaders should have in the same light responded to them and not throwing jibes and war rhetorics. Kikwete reminded its percieved enemies that Tanzania is cable of defending at whichever onslaught.  

 

Tanzania and Rwanda should tone down on the ‘negotiating with the FDLR’ remarks

Nicodemus Minde

The governments of Tanzania and Rwanda, through their Foreign Ministries have been embroiled in a heated war of words over remarks made by Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete on the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels. President Kikwete during the 50th anniversary of the African Union in Addis Ababa, called on Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel outfit because the military efforts have failed. In a quick rejoinder Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Foreign Minister described Kikwete’s remarks as “aberrant” and “shocking”. His Tanzanian counterpart Bernard Membe recently told the Tanzanian parliament that President Kikwete will not apologize or change his opinion over the need for Rwanda to negotiate with FDLR. This is indeed a sensitive topic within the realm of the region’s stability. Rwanda negotiating with FDLR will be hard thing to do. This majority Hutu rebel outfit has based in Eastern DRC has fought the government of President Kagame and consists of Hutu remnants who fled to DRC after the 1994 Genocide. President Kikwete only gave a possible avenue for resolving the impasse. The hyperbolic reactions by the two Foreign Ministers should be toned down. Tanzania and Rwanda have enjoyed a peaceful and cordial relationship over the years and this small affairs should not ruin the relationship.

Why Gen Ntaganda turned himself in

The US State Department has confirmed that wanted Congolese warlord Gen Bosco Ntaganda is in custody in the US Embassy in Kigali after he turned in himself and ‘specifically asked to be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC). This came after the Rwanda's Foreign Minister  Louise Mushikiwabo categorically denied allegations by Kinshasa that Ntaganda was in Rwanda. The 'surrender' by General Ntaganda who is known to many as the 'terminator' has sparked debate on the role of Rwanda in the Congo war. Ntaganda who is the leader of the majority Tutsi rebel group of M23 turned himself in to the US Embassy in Kigali and asked to be transferred to the Hague. Ntaganda is wanted for numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity by the ICC. The Rwandan government led by their foreign minister has been denying that they 'host' general Ntaganda. Kinshasa government Spokesman, Mr Lambert Mende has said it all along that Ntaganda was in Rwanda. Madam Mushikiwabo has always denied it to the extent of attacking Mr Mende by asking him if "Its the only thing that was in his mind"

Now that he has surrendered, one can deduce a number of conclusions. It is now hard to believe that Rwanda was not hosting Gen Ntaganda. The Rwandan government which is also led by majority Tutsi could have been using 'the terminator' in waging war in Eastern Congo for their national interests. It can be also deduced that the government of Rwanda were pushed hard by the United States to surrender the man who was in no doubt in Rwanda. The gimmicks by the foreign minister must have been brushed off by the US government and ordered to surrender the man. The US government must have made demands to Kigali, which if not met, 'there could be no business as usual'. 

The US Embassy in Kigali is a few metres from the Office of the President and Ministry of Internal Security. One can best judge from this proximate distances between the three offices. Your guess is as good as mine.

'Genocide Denial' sends Victoire Ingabire to Jail

Analysis by Nicodemus Minde & Other sources

The jailing of Rwandan political opposition leader Madame Victoire Ingabire by a Rwandan Court is an indication of the not so democratic and enviable leadership of Paul Kagame.  Madame Ingabire has been sentenced to eight years in prison for treason and genocide denial, a charge stemming from the central African nation's murderous ethnic attacks 18 years ago. This protracted trial saw saw her not been able to contest the presidency two years ago. President Kagame faced a weak and disjointed opposition winning the poll by a landslide. Victoire Ingabire returned to Rwanda in 2010 after living abroad for 16 years and quickly visited the country's genocide memorial, where she asked why Hutus killed in the violence were not recognised like the minority Tutsis were. 

 

She was charged for genocide denial, a crime which has been heavily criticised in Rwanda and internationally. This crime is selective and aims to blanket the a true analysis of the genocide that happened in Rwanda in 1994. Ingabire's lawyer, Iain Edwards, said Ingabire will appeal the court's ruling. It is highly unlikely that she will get a fair trial in Rwanda. Speaking to BBC Swahili Service, her lawyer said that they'll invoke the African Commission Charter to seek further redress. I hope that Madame Ingabire will seek further audince with the African Commission of Human and Peoples' Rights to redress her plight.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s meeting with Kikwete: Just a photo opportunity

Nicodemus Minde

October 24, 2012: Kenya’s presidential aspirant and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is meeting regional leaders in a bid to win their backing for the forthcoming presidential elections. Mr. Kenyatta is facing a trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity allegedly committed during the post-election chaos in Kenya in 2007/2008. Uhuru Kenyatta who is known to be super rich with an estimated net worth of $500 million has planned to go against all odds to run for the presidency. There have been outcries from civil society organizations and the ‘international community’ against his running but Mr. Kenyatta remains adamant that he is eligible to run. The eligibility and moral efficacy of his candidature remains a subject of court interpretation. 

Jakaya Kikwete with Uhuru Kenyatta in Dar

Mr. Kenyatta is now meeting regional heads of state in a bid to win their support for his mission to be president. He recently met Tanzania’s president Jakaya Kikwete at Dar es Salaam’s state house. He carried a delegation of government officials and The National Alliance (TNA) party officials. It is believed that they spoke on a number of issues regarding his quest for presidency. It has been reported in various mainstream Kenyan media that he plans to meet Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame in the coming few days. The meetings have even been termed as ‘Uhuru’s Shuttle Diplomacy’. These meetings have been interpreted to mean that Mr. Kenyatta is winning the support of regional heads of state and that he is positioning himself for leadership. 

The Photo Opportunity

I understand that legitimacy and political authority is sourced and derived both from within and outside. But this been said, Mr. Kenyatta needs to understand that neither Kikwete nor Kagame can salvage his imminent trial at the Hague based international tribunal. Mr. Kenyatta has of late been voracious in attacking the West and the mediator who brokered the peace deal in Kenya, Mr. Kofi Annan. He says that Kenya’s sovereignty should be respected and who leads Kenya should be determined by Kenyans and not any other foreign influences. 

Mr. Kenyatta should first understand that seeking regional support is not a bad idea, neither is it a ticket for his election to presidency. Tanzania’s president Kikwete has two more years left to see off his second term. Mr. Museveni has been heavily criticized for his undemocratic ideals and his hanging on to power. Mr. Kagame on the other hand is said to be destabilizing the region by allegedly financing the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Kikwete is facing a difficult political battle in his ruling party and the country in general. These three men are not influential in terms of wielding support for Uhuru’s presidential ambitions. The meeting in Dar-es-Salaam to was just a photo opportunity and will not add any value to Uhuru’s presidential ambitions. Even with the proposed meeting with both Museveni and Kagame, it will count to nothing. The legal process of his imminent trial will definitely hamper his presidential ambitions.