Rational Actor Model in Tanzania-Rwanda Diplomatic Spat

Foreign policy analysis is the resultant of human decision making with direct or indirect consequences on foreign entities. Foreign policy has been defined as those strategic goals formulated by a state in relation to another state. On a larger spectrum, foreign policy could also include strategic goals formulated by a state in relation to international organizations and or multinational corporations. Foreign policy involves goals, objectives, projections and outcomes which are premised on national interests which in typical International Relations discipline falls under the Realism school of thought (realpolitik). 

Tanzania and Rwanda have been embroiled in a diplomatic spat albeit an ambivalent one. For years, the two East African states have coexisted peacefully. They have enjoyed sound diplomatic relations which has seen Tanzania hosting the peace talks of 1993 between the then Hutu government and the then rebel Tutsi outfit of  RPA. After the unfortunate Rwandan Genocide of 1994, Tanzania has hosted the UN International Criminal Tribunal of Rwanda (ICTR) in Arusha. This long and outstanding relationship seems to be on the rocks.  President Kikwete during the 50th anniversary of the African Union in Addis Ababa, called on Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel outfit because the military efforts have failed. In a quick rejoinder Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Foreign Minister described Kikwete’s remarks as “aberrant” and “shocking”. A war of word between the two states ensued with President Kagame allegedly publicly threatened to hit president Kikwete. See link for further details. 

The diplomatic tensions have since escalated with reports indicating President Kagame and Kikwete are not seeing eye to eye. As members of the East African Community, the two have been avoiding each other during EAC meetings. This has even resulted to the rise of the Coalition of the Willing (CoW) which includes Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda sidelining Tanzania and Burundi in what they term as Northern Corridor Infrastructural Projects. When Rwanda was marking the 20th Anniversary of the Rwandan Genocide on April 7, President Kikwete did not attend. Kikwete's excuse was that he was on the same day attending a national holiday in Zanzibar. When Tanzania was marking the 50th anniversary of the political union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar in April 26, President Kagame declined to attend. And during the EAC meeting in Arusha recently, Kagame did not attend instead he sent a representative. The height of this came last week during the World Economic Forum in Abuja, Nigeria. The two were in attendance but observers says that they avoided each other. Although it remains as speculation, it is evident that the tensions have reached fever pitch. 

While explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Graham Allison's seminal work captures three models of decision making that are crucial in foreign policy. Allison posits that the attempt to explain international events by recounting the aims and calculations of nations or governments is the trademark of the Rational Actor Model. The central unit of analysis here is government action which is influenced by government officials. In this case, the protagonists are the two heads of state and their Foreign Ministers. Tanzania's Foreign Minister Bernard Membe is an international relations scholar who understands the complexities of decision making. His Rwandan counterpart, Louise Mushikiwabo has also carried out her duties well and thoroughly understands her country's national interests. The basic precepts of rational actor model are (1) goals and objective; (2) alternatives; (3) consequences; and lastly (4) choice. These precepts formalize the concept of rational actions that underpins economics, decisions, and game theory as most importantly individual behavior. The outcomes of decisions that follows this model are mostly based on national interests and individual behavior which is value maximizing. 

Whilst this is the case, Tanzania and Rwanda must appreciate their long standing brotherly relationship that has endured troubled pasts. Longstanding foreign policy is not hinged upon personality or behavior of the head of state rather it is embedded on a historical appreciation of one another. This is what builds venerable ties between and among states.   

Why Tanzania is being excluded from the EAC

After posting a comment on my Facebook page on Tanzania's exclusion from the East African Community, one of my friends quickly reminded me of what has become a common phrase that "Tanzania is dragging its feet and we shall move on without you". Well, the threats are coming to fruition, with the rapid rise of "the coalition of the willing" of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda and most recently South Sudan. The coalition of the willing is a phrase that has been coined to refer to the commitments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to go it alone without Tanzania and Burundi. See my previous analysis on EAC woes here.

Having bilateral or for this case, trilateral meetings between and amongst states within the East African Community setup is not a problem. The Treaty of the EAC however, in Article 6 on the fundamental principles of the Community, is governed on mutual trust, political will and sovereign equality; peaceful coexistence and good neighborliness; and peaceful settlement of disputes. What Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda are doing is right pursuant to their national interests but not within the spirit of the Treaty. The Treaty establishes key organs which aid the running and operations of the bloc. These include; the summit, the council, the coordination committee, sectoral committees among eight other institutions. The summit which is composed of the Heads of States meet at least once a year to map and discuss important issues concerning the community. The recent meetings by the heads of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda dubbed as integration summits can be described as a mini summits. Tanzania has now been excluded from these meetings in three occasions now. They first met in Uganda, then in Mombasa and this week met in Kigali. It is no brainer that there is a deliberate attempt to exclude Tanzania and Burundi from "their" affairs.  The coordination committee which is made up of permanent secretaries responsible in respective country's EAC ministry is involved in the coordination of activities agreed by the summit and the council. The sectoral committee is involved in different sectors concerning the community such as infrastructure. The actions by the three countries which were centered on infrastructure should have involved both the coordination committee and the sectoral committee as agreed by the Treaty.

South Sudan has been seeking to join the EAC. This was evidenced by the attendance of Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan. Article 3 of the Treaty talks about membership and conditions for admitting a new member. In Article 3 (2) states that "The Partner States may, upon such terms and in such manner as they may determine, together negotiate with any foreign country the granting of membership to, or association of that country with, the Community or its participation in any of the activities of the Community. The meeting of the three states with South Sudan could be interpreted as going against the provisions of the Treaty since not all partner states were present when meeting South Sudan even if the subject of discussion wasn't on membership admission. 

Speaking in Parliament yesterday, Tanzania's East African Cooperation Minister Samuel Sitta threw spanner into the works when he said Tanzania's cooperation with DRC and Burundi was feasible. Mr. Sitta went on to say that Dar could divorce itself from the community. Methinks that he was just trying to be cynical whilst trying to flex Tanzania's muscles. Tanzania and Rwanda have had simmering tensions ever since President Kikwete called for Kigali to negotiate with the rebel outfit FDLR. Tanzania went forth to send her troops as part of the UN intervention brigade to DRC to help neutralize armed groups in the Eastern part of DRC. This did not auger well with Rwanda's president Paul Kagame. Tanzania has also been carrying out a nationwide operation to weed out illegal immigrants with many Rwandans falling victims. This also heightened the tensions.

Tanzania remains an integral component of the East African Community and a reliable partner. With Tanzania sharing a border with all the other four states, its influence remains very important.

Kikwete responds diplomatically to Rwanda jibes

Nicodemus Minde

Tanzania's president Jakaya Kikwete has responded to the diplomatic spat between Tanzania and Rwanda. President Kikwete was very diplomatic in responding to the jibes and counter jibes coming from some quarters of Rwanda. Kikwete had early made proposals to the Rwanda government to negotiate with the FDLR militia. President Kikwete during the 50th anniversary of the African Union in Addis Ababa, called on Rwanda to negotiate with the rebel outfit because the military efforts have failed. In a quick rejoinder Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Foreign Minister described Kikwete’s remarks as “aberrant” and “shocking”. The simmering tensions have gone on for long now. As is alleged Rwanda's president Paul Kagame publicly threatened to hit president Kikwete. The following is an excerpt of his alleged tirade: 

"And those whom you recently heard speaking for the Interahamwe and FDLR, saying that we should negotiate with them. Negotiate with them? As for me, I do not even argue about this issue because I will wait for you at the right place and I will hit you!! I really did not… I didn’t even reply to him, I never arg… uh… it is known, there is a line you can’t cross. There is a line, there is a line that should never be crossed. Not once. It’s impossible!!…”

Jakaya Kikwete who previously served as Foreign Minister for ten years before he became president, has been very diplomatic in his response. Ideally, President Kikwete response embodies the tenets and principles of Tanzania's foreign policy. He used his monthly television and radio address to elaborate on the spat. "Our relations with Rwanda remain the same and nothing has changed" he said. President Kikwete said that he has heard a lot been said about him and Tanzania concerning the remarks he made. In a diplomatic and cordial language, Kikwete noted that the facts have been "completely been put out of proportion and completely out of context". He acknowledged Tanzania's close ties with its neighbors and the historical support Tanzania offered to Rwanda. In a calm demeanour Kikwete said he had nothing personal and against Kagame and that he was just airing his views. 

The response by Kikwete further highlights Tanzania's historical image of a peace-loving country. The country has modeled itself as an island of peace and a good neighbor as espoused in its key foreign policy pillars. The move by Kagame, which Kikwete notes, has deeper undertones. As a leader, Kikwete was entitled to give his views. If the views did not augur well with Rwanda, then its leaders should have in the same light responded to them and not throwing jibes and war rhetorics. Kikwete reminded its percieved enemies that Tanzania is cable of defending at whichever onslaught.  

 

Why Gen Ntaganda turned himself in

The US State Department has confirmed that wanted Congolese warlord Gen Bosco Ntaganda is in custody in the US Embassy in Kigali after he turned in himself and ‘specifically asked to be transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC). This came after the Rwanda's Foreign Minister  Louise Mushikiwabo categorically denied allegations by Kinshasa that Ntaganda was in Rwanda. The 'surrender' by General Ntaganda who is known to many as the 'terminator' has sparked debate on the role of Rwanda in the Congo war. Ntaganda who is the leader of the majority Tutsi rebel group of M23 turned himself in to the US Embassy in Kigali and asked to be transferred to the Hague. Ntaganda is wanted for numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity by the ICC. The Rwandan government led by their foreign minister has been denying that they 'host' general Ntaganda. Kinshasa government Spokesman, Mr Lambert Mende has said it all along that Ntaganda was in Rwanda. Madam Mushikiwabo has always denied it to the extent of attacking Mr Mende by asking him if "Its the only thing that was in his mind"

Now that he has surrendered, one can deduce a number of conclusions. It is now hard to believe that Rwanda was not hosting Gen Ntaganda. The Rwandan government which is also led by majority Tutsi could have been using 'the terminator' in waging war in Eastern Congo for their national interests. It can be also deduced that the government of Rwanda were pushed hard by the United States to surrender the man who was in no doubt in Rwanda. The gimmicks by the foreign minister must have been brushed off by the US government and ordered to surrender the man. The US government must have made demands to Kigali, which if not met, 'there could be no business as usual'. 

The US Embassy in Kigali is a few metres from the Office of the President and Ministry of Internal Security. One can best judge from this proximate distances between the three offices. Your guess is as good as mine.

'Genocide Denial' sends Victoire Ingabire to Jail

Analysis by Nicodemus Minde & Other sources

The jailing of Rwandan political opposition leader Madame Victoire Ingabire by a Rwandan Court is an indication of the not so democratic and enviable leadership of Paul Kagame.  Madame Ingabire has been sentenced to eight years in prison for treason and genocide denial, a charge stemming from the central African nation's murderous ethnic attacks 18 years ago. This protracted trial saw saw her not been able to contest the presidency two years ago. President Kagame faced a weak and disjointed opposition winning the poll by a landslide. Victoire Ingabire returned to Rwanda in 2010 after living abroad for 16 years and quickly visited the country's genocide memorial, where she asked why Hutus killed in the violence were not recognised like the minority Tutsis were. 

 

She was charged for genocide denial, a crime which has been heavily criticised in Rwanda and internationally. This crime is selective and aims to blanket the a true analysis of the genocide that happened in Rwanda in 1994. Ingabire's lawyer, Iain Edwards, said Ingabire will appeal the court's ruling. It is highly unlikely that she will get a fair trial in Rwanda. Speaking to BBC Swahili Service, her lawyer said that they'll invoke the African Commission Charter to seek further redress. I hope that Madame Ingabire will seek further audince with the African Commission of Human and Peoples' Rights to redress her plight.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s meeting with Kikwete: Just a photo opportunity

Nicodemus Minde

October 24, 2012: Kenya’s presidential aspirant and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is meeting regional leaders in a bid to win their backing for the forthcoming presidential elections. Mr. Kenyatta is facing a trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity allegedly committed during the post-election chaos in Kenya in 2007/2008. Uhuru Kenyatta who is known to be super rich with an estimated net worth of $500 million has planned to go against all odds to run for the presidency. There have been outcries from civil society organizations and the ‘international community’ against his running but Mr. Kenyatta remains adamant that he is eligible to run. The eligibility and moral efficacy of his candidature remains a subject of court interpretation. 

Jakaya Kikwete with Uhuru Kenyatta in Dar

Mr. Kenyatta is now meeting regional heads of state in a bid to win their support for his mission to be president. He recently met Tanzania’s president Jakaya Kikwete at Dar es Salaam’s state house. He carried a delegation of government officials and The National Alliance (TNA) party officials. It is believed that they spoke on a number of issues regarding his quest for presidency. It has been reported in various mainstream Kenyan media that he plans to meet Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame in the coming few days. The meetings have even been termed as ‘Uhuru’s Shuttle Diplomacy’. These meetings have been interpreted to mean that Mr. Kenyatta is winning the support of regional heads of state and that he is positioning himself for leadership. 

The Photo Opportunity

I understand that legitimacy and political authority is sourced and derived both from within and outside. But this been said, Mr. Kenyatta needs to understand that neither Kikwete nor Kagame can salvage his imminent trial at the Hague based international tribunal. Mr. Kenyatta has of late been voracious in attacking the West and the mediator who brokered the peace deal in Kenya, Mr. Kofi Annan. He says that Kenya’s sovereignty should be respected and who leads Kenya should be determined by Kenyans and not any other foreign influences. 

Mr. Kenyatta should first understand that seeking regional support is not a bad idea, neither is it a ticket for his election to presidency. Tanzania’s president Kikwete has two more years left to see off his second term. Mr. Museveni has been heavily criticized for his undemocratic ideals and his hanging on to power. Mr. Kagame on the other hand is said to be destabilizing the region by allegedly financing the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Kikwete is facing a difficult political battle in his ruling party and the country in general. These three men are not influential in terms of wielding support for Uhuru’s presidential ambitions. The meeting in Dar-es-Salaam to was just a photo opportunity and will not add any value to Uhuru’s presidential ambitions. Even with the proposed meeting with both Museveni and Kagame, it will count to nothing. The legal process of his imminent trial will definitely hamper his presidential ambitions.