The Westgate Terrorist Attack: Any Lessons for Kenya’s Approach to Regional Security?

My jointly written article was recently published on Kujenga Amani Website. The article analyzes security implications of the region following the Al Shabaab terror siege on Westagate on September 21. For further details see article here.

Why Tanzania is being excluded from the EAC

After posting a comment on my Facebook page on Tanzania's exclusion from the East African Community, one of my friends quickly reminded me of what has become a common phrase that "Tanzania is dragging its feet and we shall move on without you". Well, the threats are coming to fruition, with the rapid rise of "the coalition of the willing" of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda and most recently South Sudan. The coalition of the willing is a phrase that has been coined to refer to the commitments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to go it alone without Tanzania and Burundi. See my previous analysis on EAC woes here.

Having bilateral or for this case, trilateral meetings between and amongst states within the East African Community setup is not a problem. The Treaty of the EAC however, in Article 6 on the fundamental principles of the Community, is governed on mutual trust, political will and sovereign equality; peaceful coexistence and good neighborliness; and peaceful settlement of disputes. What Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda are doing is right pursuant to their national interests but not within the spirit of the Treaty. The Treaty establishes key organs which aid the running and operations of the bloc. These include; the summit, the council, the coordination committee, sectoral committees among eight other institutions. The summit which is composed of the Heads of States meet at least once a year to map and discuss important issues concerning the community. The recent meetings by the heads of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda dubbed as integration summits can be described as a mini summits. Tanzania has now been excluded from these meetings in three occasions now. They first met in Uganda, then in Mombasa and this week met in Kigali. It is no brainer that there is a deliberate attempt to exclude Tanzania and Burundi from "their" affairs.  The coordination committee which is made up of permanent secretaries responsible in respective country's EAC ministry is involved in the coordination of activities agreed by the summit and the council. The sectoral committee is involved in different sectors concerning the community such as infrastructure. The actions by the three countries which were centered on infrastructure should have involved both the coordination committee and the sectoral committee as agreed by the Treaty.

South Sudan has been seeking to join the EAC. This was evidenced by the attendance of Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan. Article 3 of the Treaty talks about membership and conditions for admitting a new member. In Article 3 (2) states that "The Partner States may, upon such terms and in such manner as they may determine, together negotiate with any foreign country the granting of membership to, or association of that country with, the Community or its participation in any of the activities of the Community. The meeting of the three states with South Sudan could be interpreted as going against the provisions of the Treaty since not all partner states were present when meeting South Sudan even if the subject of discussion wasn't on membership admission. 

Speaking in Parliament yesterday, Tanzania's East African Cooperation Minister Samuel Sitta threw spanner into the works when he said Tanzania's cooperation with DRC and Burundi was feasible. Mr. Sitta went on to say that Dar could divorce itself from the community. Methinks that he was just trying to be cynical whilst trying to flex Tanzania's muscles. Tanzania and Rwanda have had simmering tensions ever since President Kikwete called for Kigali to negotiate with the rebel outfit FDLR. Tanzania went forth to send her troops as part of the UN intervention brigade to DRC to help neutralize armed groups in the Eastern part of DRC. This did not auger well with Rwanda's president Paul Kagame. Tanzania has also been carrying out a nationwide operation to weed out illegal immigrants with many Rwandans falling victims. This also heightened the tensions.

Tanzania remains an integral component of the East African Community and a reliable partner. With Tanzania sharing a border with all the other four states, its influence remains very important.

Africa should embrace the Failed States Index and 'Move on'

Nicodemus Minde

The Foreign Policy Magazine has published the list of the "Failed States Index" which is prepared by the Washington-based think-tank, Fund for Peace. In a heading "Postcards from Hell", FP Magazine gives a pictorial chronology of the 54 "most failed states" in the world. Living on the edge in the world's worst places in the world was the subtitle of the pictorials. The failed state index has not been received well especially in Africa. Many African political commentators have rubbished this index, with some terming it another neo-colonial concept of disregarding African states. The failed state index, just like many other statistical indices, has used scientific statistical indicators to produce a ranking of 178 countries. The FSI focuses on the indicators of risk and is based on thousands of articles and reports that are processed by a CAST Software from electronically available sources. A number of crucial factors were used to draw up this list. Risks such as instability, insecurity, undemocratic elections were used amongst other indicators like infant mortality rates, literacy levels, availability of essential services such as education, health etc. 

The FSI just like many other statistical indices, is far from 100% accuracy, but the indicators used are worldwide accepted as factors of development and growth. Critics have however questioned the measurability of instability. They argue you can scientifically measure stability. Such detractors fail to understand that the indicators to this indices are numerically accounted for using modern statistical software that numerically determines the percentage and thus rank. I know some of these indices are based on perception, and could be biased to some extent. Detractors or rather "denialist" only look at the geographical outlook as presented by these data and say that it is another Western ploy to demean and profile the global south and more so African states. 

For African countries to successfully transform her economies, they need to accept some of these factual analysis and take them as reference points for planning for success. I believe in Africa and see the continent as the next frontier or as the Americans would love to say "The African Century". African countries still grapple with instability, institutional weakness, political fissures, ethnicity, resource conflicts, dictatorships, poor infrastructure, corruption and graft, greediness from political leaders, illiteracy and many other ailments. Of the ten most failed states in the world, according to the 2013 figures, seven are African, of the fifty most failed states, 32 are African. This is not surprising to me. Few African countries are realizing that they should not mourn over this figures but are making effects to remedy the shame. 

Africa needs to get it leadership and governance right. One African country still has a president who came to power when Jimmy Carter was US President. What will this type of leader offer that he hasn't offered for thirty years. Africa still has leaders who are dreaming of changing the constitution to run again for president and when they lose, they rig the vote and run the country with impunity. This is Africa! Africa should embrace the FSI data and remedy the appalling state of affairs.

Uhuru's new Foreign Policy Approach: Pragmatic or Precarious?

Nicodemus Minde

In one of his analysis of Kenya's new foreign policy approach under President Uhuru Kenyatta, Peter Kagwanja remarked that Kenya’s foreign policy is emerging and is reflecting an assertive new Africa-centred approach as the central plank of Nairobi’s regional and global policy. He was writing this in the regional paper, the East Africa soon after President Kenyatta took oath of office on April 9, 2013. Kenya has historically been the 'hub' of the region, as evidenced by the international presence such as the UN offices in Nairobi. 

When Kenya gained political independence in 1963, it took a pure capitalist approach based on the Western model. Her relations with the West were thus strengthened by this. Kenya became the darling of the West and a close ally unlike her East African neighbors, Tanzania and Uganda. Tanzania had taken up the socialist model, Ujamaa, which President Nyerere described as 'Tanzania's unique model of socialism.' Uganda under Milton Obote also pursed a similar path. It was no wonder that Tanzania strengthened her relations with the likes of China, USSR, and Cuba, who were all communist states. Under President Daniel Moi, Kenya's foreign policy was quite pragmatic due to the Cold War at the time. However, Kenya maintained close relations with the West particularly US and Britain. However, since 2002 as my colleague puts it "the Kibaki administration had been keen on expand the pool of international partners. China was one such available partner". This has seen Kenya adapt an Economic Diplomacy Foreign Policy Agenda which focuses largely on trade, bilateral and multilateral business partnerships. 

Uhuru Kenyatta, during his campaigns said he would "look East" upon his ascension to president. Foreign policy commentators and media saw his move was instigated by his indictment at the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes committed during Kenya's Post-poll Violence of 2007/2008. Coupled with the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson remark that 'choices have consequences' warning Kenyans against electing an indictee president, Kenyatta administration was without doubt going to pursue a "look East" approach. 

US President Barack Obama, whose father was Kenyan, has skipped Kenya from his latest African tour. He visits Tanzania instead, to the dismay of many Kenyans, who view it as a snob. Obama through the foreign department has explained that he visits Tanzania for economic reasons and most recently the White House explained that the ICC cases facing Kenya’s top leaders are the reason why US President Barrack Obama is skipping Kenya during his Africa tour which kicks off Wednesday next week. Outspoken critic of Uhuru Kenyatta, Makau Mutua reiterated this in his column on Sunday Nation stating that Mr Obama is simply giving Mr Carson’s truism a nod.

President Kenyatta will embark on a tour to Japan, Russia and China in a move seen by many as a counter-check to the Obama snob and reiterating his "look East" approach. Kenyatta has proven to be quite an astute politician who tries to balance Kenya's relations without necessarily being seen as an 'anti-West' leader. He has to trade like this since he still has a pending a case at the ICC.    

The communication angle during Cabinet Unveiling: Why UhuruRuto were in matching outfits and more!

Nicodemus Minde, Nairobi

Tuesday 23, April, 2013. Late Tuesday, Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta named four out of the 18 members of his Cabinet. Flanked by his Deputy, William Ruto, the President read out the profiles of the four nominees to his cabinet. Going against primordial tendencies which characterized former administrations, President Kenyatta in a calculative manner set out the unveiling of the cabinet at the entrance of State House, a more media friendly area. The occasion and setting was reminiscent of that of White House in United States. Further, the President read out the list of the nominees with their profiles coming at the interlude of each proposed name. This is indeed a modern culture which, pursuant to their election manifesto,echoes the spirit of a digital revolution in Kenya. With State House Kenya having its on twitter handle (@StateHouseKenya) and Facebook link which keeps the people abreast with matters of the State, the Curriculum Vitae of the nominees were also quickly uploaded in the document sharing website Scribd. This is indeed a digital revolution on the part of the Jubilee team. 

Picture courtesy of Daily Nation

The President and his Deputy were also in matching white shirts and red ties. By them wearing shirts without the coats/jackets, it signifies their readiness and commitment to the arduous work ahead. Similar to President Obama's roll-up of his shirt's sleeves, the two decided to abandon their coats and show they are prepared for the task at hand. It is also noteworthy that the two matching in their dressing. This again shows their commitment to working together despite the incessant giggles and parleys of them not agreeing on the cabinet list. 

The President also took questions from the media, a practice not so common with previous administrations. To show unity again, Uhuru Kenyatta asked his Deputy William Ruto to take the other questions and clarify on a number of issues. That is called working in tandem and the relationship is becoming telepathic. William Ruto backed his boss when responding to the questions and further clarified on the East African Community docket. In another symbolic act, the President invited the journalists for a cup of tea inside State House. Though the welcome gesture was just out of courteousness, it shows the friendly side of the two. People will say the two are in the honeymoon phase of their leadership, but as the Swahili saying goes, "siku njema huonekana asubuhi."  

Kenyans Preach Peace

Kenyans went to the poll today in a first election after promulgating a new constitution in 2010. After a disastrous poll in 2007, Kenyans have decided to preach peace and vote in harmony. Long queues were seen today in all polling stations in what is seen as the highest voter turn out in the country's history.Social media was a buzz with messages of peace and a reminder that being Kenyan was more important than the election. Kenya has shown thus far that it is possible to vote in peace. As results stream in, Kenyans should be patient and accept a fair result.