CCM reading from KANU script, we all know what happened!

Having grown up and gone to school in Kenya at the height of their 'second liberation' one thing was clear: people power reigns. When the agitation for reforms started in the late 1980s, KANU government in a chutzpah fashion cracked its whip by harassing and jailing dissidents. Coinciding with the fall of the Berlin Wall that marked the triumph of liberal democracy, the reform agenda gathered momentum in not only Kenya but the world over. An intransigent President Moi and his government agreed to repel section 2A of the constitution and Kenya became a multiparty democracy in 1991. Despite the opposition loosing the 1992 and 1997 elections, they continued pressing the Moi regime calling for reforms. The opposition saw constitutional reforms as the only way out. When calls for minimum reforms were thwarted by the Moi regime in 1996, prior to the elections the following year, the writing was on the wall for Kenya. Moi went on to easily beat his opponents in the elections in 1997. 

Calls for reforms did not end there. The opposition together with other pressure groups coalesced demanding for change and constitution reforms. A Commission for Constitution Reforms of Kenya was set up in 2000 after intense pressure. Moi regime had began to cave. Despite the brouhaha, Moi continued to dillydally on the process. President Moi anointed Uhuru Kenyatta as his heir apparent since his term was coming to an end in 2002. This did not augur well with a section of KANU politicians who jumped ship. Led by Raila Odinga and a host of other political figures such as George Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka, Simeon Nyachae, Mwai Kibaki, Moody Awori, Charity Ngilu and many others coalesced and formed a formidable NARC coalition ahead of the 2002 election. Their agenda was to remove KANU from office and  a championed for a new constitution. Law and behold, the indomitable KANU was resoundingly defeated. Legends and tales of the 'Jogoo' party are still told to date. Ironically, CCM, the 'independence' party seems to be reading from KANU script. With the constitution process in Tanzania at a deadlock, CCM has refused to yield to the opposition demands. 

Tanzania is not Kenya when it comes to politics, neither is CCM KANU. But lest we forget, as Aldous Huxley postulates 'that men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach". 

Democracy versus Stability: Political Reconciliation and the Government of National Unity in Zanzibar

A Government of National Unity was set up in Zanzibar after protracted peace efforts between two historical rival parties CCM and CUF in 2010. The GNU was pre-election pact sealed after the Maridhiano Talks between the Zanzibar president Amani Karume and CUF leader Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad in November 2009.  This move heralded a new beginning in Zanzibar. Despite this fact, I assess in the article the prospects of democracy vis-à-vis stability in the isles.

 

Please find the full article from the digital forum Kujenga Amani, a forum of the African Peacebuilding Network (APN) of the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) here:

Katiba Watch: An Intransigent UKAWA; JK in the US

The Constituent Assembly resumes tomorrow after a three months hiatus. Intrigues during the first CA sessions saw a section of members under the Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (UKAWA) umbrella, decide to walk out of the sessions in April. The UKAWA group which is made up of the opposition parties, CHADEMA, NCCR, CUF and other like-minded members have claimed that CCM has hijacked the process and are pushing for a party agenda. Mediation efforts aimed at convincing UKAWA to return to the sessions have failed. Both sides have taken strong unwavering stances. UKAWA have vowed not to return unless the CCM members agree to only discuss the contents of the proposed constitution draft. 

UKAWA Leaders. From left; J.Mbatia, F.Mbowe and I.Lipumba

The President has been accused of jeopardizing the process when he deliberately decided to take party sides during the inauguration of the CA. He has now traveled out of the country. Analysts have argued that the president, as the symbol of national unity, could have placed national interests ahead of party interests in the constitution debate. The president is attending the US-Africa summit in Washington. It was widely expected that he could have used his position to broker the standoff in the Katiba process. 

The prospects for a new constitution now look bleak. Academics and policy practitioners are even proposing a halt to the Katiba process. However, this comes with alarming caution that going to an election without a new constitution could spell disaster in Tanzania. Comparatively, Zimbabwe and Kenya post-poll violence in 2008 was as a result of going to an election after a constitution fallout.     

#Iran Nuclear Talks: Who's the real loser?

Every week I post an interesting article on issues foreign policy and international affairs. Today, we look at an article by Camelia Entekhabifard who analyses the ongoing Iran nuclear talks with the P5+1 posted on Al Jazeera website opinion space. 

She posits that as much as China and Russia side with Iran, the end of sanctions in Iran will not go down well in Beijing and Moscow respectively. She is of the idea that Russia, China and black marketeers all have something in common - that is, they have nothing to lose if the talks fails. Iran would likely grow more reliant on Russia as a regional security buffer and Russia would lose an oil and gas competitor and might even secure a better deal with Iran if the talks fall apart.

Another interesting point made here is on the stability of the region. The Middle East region faces numerous security challenges. Israel, an arch enemy of Iran is now fighting Palestine's Hamas. In what started as kidnapping of Israelis, the retaliatory attacks have killed over 200 Palestine people in the last week. It has been argued that a failure of the Iran Nuclear Talks will further destabilize the region. For more indepth analysis see link below. 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/iran-nuclear-talks-20147156547235397.html

Mtanzania wrong to insinuate that Kenya could be behind the Arusha Attacks

Arusha town has been hit by spasmodic bomb attacks in the recent past. There have been attacks during opposition political rallies as well as a bomb thrown into a Catholic Church in Olasiti during its inauguration last year. This year a bomb was thrown into a local pub injuring a number of people. Just last week a bomb was thrown inside the house of a Muslim cleric as he broke fast. Tanzania has enjoyed peace and stability for the better part of her history. The recent wave of attacks are reminiscent to the Al Shabaab and Boko Haram terror attacks in Kenya and Nigeria respectively. The Al Shabaab and Boko Haram menace are largely Islamic extremism. Kenya and Nigeria have had a torrid time and this has seen their international standing fade quite considerably. 

Two days ago, Arusha was hit by another bomb attack, this time in an Indian restaurant called Vama. Eight people have been seriously wounded with one victim's leg amputated. Speculation on the causes and who could responsible for the attack is rife. I have closely followed the reporting of the incidence from a local and international standpoint.

Tanzania newspaper report on the bomb attack in Arusha

Local newspapers have today carried headlines of the Arusha incidence. One local newspaper, Mtanzania has caught my attention. It has carried a headline "Siri Milipuko ya Mabomu Arusha yabainika". This loosely translates: "Secret behind Arusha bombings revealed". Reading the story, Mtanzania quotes a tourism stakeholder who implicates Kenya to the Arusha attacks. He says that Kenya is using all means to cripple the tourism sector in Tanzania. He says that the main aim is to scare away tourists who are fleeing Kenya due to insecurity and finding alternative destination in Tanzania. 

I have also spoken to a number of my friends here in Arusha and they believe this could be one of the reasons to the attacks. Arusha town is the gateway to a number of tourist sites in Tanzania. The Guardian Nigeria reports in its website that "Arusha is a key town for Tanzania's tourist industry, a major source of foreign currency for the eastern African country."

The police is yet to establish the motive of this recent attack. It is however wrong to implicate a foreign country without substantive evidence. Kenya and Tanzania have been good friendly countries for many years. Despite competition in the tourism market, it is foolhardy, inappropriate and impetuous to imagine this. The security personnel in Arusha should reexamine itself and intercept impending acts of violence which could just local criminal operations.        

#WorldPolitics: Why is the World Cup more exciting than World Politics?

I will be posting links to interesting articles touching on International Politics and Foreign Policy in my blog from today. 

Here is an interesting analysis by Hamid Dabashi, one of my favorite authors and commentator of world affairs. He ponders why the World Cup is more interesting than World Politics. Even though he hasnt mentioned the fact that he has been over the moon for Iran national team qualification to the World Cup and the somewhat inspiring performance, I believe this article has been highly motivated with #TeamMelli. I was also supporting Iran by the way.  

Here is the article courtesy of Aljazeera:  Why is the World Cup more exciting than world politics?

Iran World Cup Cartoon

The Two Karumes; A Bicycle and and a Range Rover

A picture of a gray-haired Mwalimu Julius Nyerere hangs on bedroom wall. Besides it is a small picture of Thomas Sankara in a military combat and red beret and on my study table lies a picture of Martin Luther King as he addressed civil rights supporters at Lincoln Memorial in Washington in 1963. I admire these three men. They remind me who and what I want to be. They are all great men in the eyes of the world. Despite their glittering roles in modern history, their simplicity and modesty inspire me the most. 

This week am in Zanzibar for work. I have had an opportunity to visit the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) headquarters which was the venue Sheikh Abeid Amani Karume, the first president of Zanzibar was assassinated in 1972. Outside the party headquarters is his statue with a revolutionary message:

 Zanzibar Serikali yetu ni ya Usawa

Hakuna Bwana Juu ya Binadamu Mwenziwe

Kila Mwenye Haki Apewe

Tumepindua Kuondoa Mabaya

Lengo Letu

Kuleta Usawa na Maendeleo

Ubinafsi ni Adui wa Maendeleo

As you get inside the building, on the right hand corner is a small office where Mzee Karume used as an office and where he was killed. Inside the office is a small table with few chairs. Besides the chairs is Karume's bicycle. Am told that Mzee Karume always used this bike to go around and that was the only means of transport that he owned. 

Later in the day, as I take my colleague to the airport, we are stopped by police sirens. I ask my Zanzibar friend, Salim what this was about. "Karume is going to the mosque for Friday prayers," he tells me. A white porsche Range Rover pulls over at the mosque and Amani Karume (immediate former president of Zanzibar and son of Mzee Karume) walks out and heads to the mosque. Am told his house is barely a kilometer from the mosque. I try to juxtapose my morning encounter with this and am dumbstruck. How times change! After all, we are not all cut from the same cloth!

Ramadhan Kareem from Zanzibar.