By the Institute of Security Studies
In April 2012 the former Congres National pour la Defense du Peuple (CNDP)
rebels started defecting from the Congolese army. They had been integrated into
the Forces Armees de la Republique Democratique du Congo (FARDC) under the 2009
peace deal The subsequent clashes between the mutineers and the FARDC have
caused over 200 000 civilians to flee the region.
Last weekend, however, the situation started changing dramatically, with the
mutinous group, now known as the M23 taking control of numerous strategic
towns, including Bunagana, Rutshuru, Ntamungenga and Rubare, which is 10km from
the provincial capital Goma. An estimated 600 FARDC troops fled to neighbouring
Uganda. Although the leader of the battalion that fled described the move as a
tactical withdrawal, the soldiers left their weapons behind and these have now
been captured by the M23.
These latest developments are reminiscent of the events in 2008, when the CNDP
came very close to taking control of Goma. While the M23 leader, Col. Sultani
Makenga is calling for negotiations with DRC President Laurent Kabila to
discuss better treatment of troops in the FARDC, it is doubtful whether the M23
will once again be integrated into the army.
Kinshasa is extremely concerned about the possibility that rebels could take
over Goma. Indications are that the confrontation could be deadly, and also
contribute to the fragility of the region and the country as a whole.
Plans are also underway to send more troops to Goma to dissuade rebels from
attempting attacks on the town.
The fact that the M23 has said that it would evacuate all the towns it has
taken, except for Bunagana, indicates that the group is increasingly interested
in gaining control over mineral trade in the region, as Bunagana is a strategic
mineral transit town on the border with Uganda.
It has to be remembered that the former CNDP members, who make up a large
component of the M23, were interested in protecting the Banyamulenge population
(Tutsi Congolese who migrated to the DRC in the 1880's); fighting the former
Hutu rebels of the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) and
gaining what they could in the process. If the M23 manages to take control of
Goma, it will effectively be controlling the North Kivu, and would thus be
better able to protect the Banyamulenge and keep the FDLR weak.
It is of great concern that while the M23 is interested in protecting certain
parts of the population, its members are also notorious human rights abusers.
Their leaders, Bosco Ntaganda and Sultani Makenga have both been involved in
various massacres, rape and recruitment of child soldiers.
Having the M23 in control of Eastern DRC may be in the interest of Rwanda, and
of the Tutsi population in the East, but for the rest of the civilian
population, it will mean that their lives will become more insecure than ever
before.
Unfortunately the United Nations peacekeepers mandated to protect civilians,
even if force is required, have not been very successful in enforcing their
mandate. Thus, it has now become critical for President Kabila and President
Paul Kagame of Rwanda to discuss the situation. So far, the mutiny has only
been discussed by the military and by foreign ministers of the two countries,
but given Rwanda's alleged involvement in supplying weapons and recruits for
the M23, this situation requires urgent discussion at the highest level.